While authorities wielded the law today, the future belonged to the young, said Attapon, a satirist whose merciless takedowns of Thailand’s establishment have made him a protest pin-up.

“The lèse-majesté law might just be the last weapon that the establishment has to silence those trying to speak the truth,” he told This Week in Asia. “But the cat’s already out of the bag. There’s no more fear. Simply put, Thailand will never be the same again.”

But behind the bold rhetoric, protesters have so far been unable to force concessions from the army-linked government. Instead, on December 14, with tensions rising and the risk of clashes with royalists mounting, they suddenly declared a “rest”, promising to return next year.

Their fun, creative protests have evaporated from Bangkok’s streets, leaving commentators scrambling to divine whether the change is an indicator of smart tactics or a loss of cohesion. Their leaders have been slowed by court cases – firebrand Parit “Penguin” Chiwarak has 11 royal defamation charges pending against him, which could amount to 165 years in jail.

There are also divisions inside the coalition of student, labour, LGBTQ and youth groups over the direction ahead – specifically whether the calls for reform of the monarchy are failing to cut through to a wider public, where many may dislike the government but are broadly supportive of the royal institution.

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Thai demonstrators gather near UN office calling for action against royal insult law

Thai demonstrators gather near UN office calling for action against royal insult law

“If we are looking at things in the short term to medium term, the government is winning … because they hold all the power,” political commentator Voranai Vanitjaka said in an interview. “In the long term, the protesters are winning. For the first time in Thailand’s history, there’s a cultural revolution.”

A NEW START?

To a movement armed with all the tools of the internet, a break in protesting also does not necessarily mean a fatal loss of momentum.

Small flash mobs have hung banners opposing section 112 inside luxury shopping malls and over key highways, with the photos then bouncing across Twitter and Facebook, among other social-media sites.

“There’s a big difference between ‘getting a rest’ and ‘getting weak’,” Attapon said. “This year’s fight is a prologue towards a true systemic change, and we only just got started.”

The protesters have three core demands.

They want the government of the much-ridiculed ex-general turned prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, to step down; a revamping of the legislature so the 250 senators in the upper house are no longer appointed by proxies of the Thai military; the untethering of the army from political power; and reform of the monarchy to keep it – and its multibillion-dollar assets – tightly bound by the constitution.

They have won nothing so far in a country where the royalist army has refused to give up power to democracy movements – Thailand has had a coup on average every seven years since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932. Prayuth has clung to power, parliament voted down the protesters’ proposed constitutional rewrite and King Vajiralongkorn has busily toured the country, bringing out the mainly older royalist supporters in a battle for the optics of legitimacy.

But the students have kicked down the doors to debate.

“Unimaginable just a few months ago, the call for reform is an unvarnished expression of the legitimacy conflict that has beset Thailand since the absolute monarchy ended in 1932, namely: who is sovereign, the people or the king?” wrote Matthew Wheeler, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, in a recent report.

On the streets and online, they have questioned Vajiralonkorn’s wealth, his influence over the top echelons of the army and politics, his overseas domicile in Germany and even his personal life in ways that have shocked and delighted many far from the centre of the action in Bangkok.

The crackdown by Thai authorities on the protesters has also caught the eye of the international community, with the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights on December 18 saying the lèse-majesté cases against the protesters were “extremely disappointing” and “shockingly – now also against a minor”.

WINDS OF CHANGE

The country is split between an older generation that defers to a power structure with the monarchy at its head, and young people educated in the internet age without the devotion to the traditional pillars of Thai society.

Inspired by Vajiralongkorn’s public relations campaign, arch-royalists have rallied around the king’s flag. Nightly television bulletins show thousands of adoring supporters cheering him – flanked by his wife, Queen Suthida, and/or his royal consort, Sineenat – as he smiles for selfies and recasts himself as an accessible, friendly monarch.

The royalist camp says the protesters’ “break” is simply masking a defeat.

Thai police hunt Hong Kong-style flash mob that targeted Bangkok mall

“Our country has wasted time with you people for far too long,” royalist organiser Warong Dechgitvigrom posted on his Facebook page December 21, with a Thai hashtag: “time to go home mob”.

More section 112 charges are likely, as the royalists vow to deepen their hunt for perceived transgressions.

“Be that as it may, the rule of fear is much less potent than before,” said Voronai, the political commentator. “The winds of change are sweeping through.”

For veteran anti-government figures, the new movement has legs because it keeps everybody guessing as to its targets and intentions.

“Some of them need to take care of other businesses, recharge and recalibrate,” said Headache Stencil, a graffiti artist who has led years of satirical attacks on the government.

“They are too fed up with our country and the system. They’ll come back with a bang.”