Isis support in Indonesia drops, but militants aren’t sitting still, warns IPAC think tank

The Institute of Policy Analysis of Conflict said better law enforcement, the collapse of Isis, and the coronavirus reduced pro-Islamic State activity in 2020

The challenge is to prevent recruitment and regeneration of groups including Jemaah Islamiah, whose leader Abu Bakar Bashir was recently released

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An Indonesian report found that while the overall picture was of ‘a manageable threat with nothing to undermine political stability and nothing beyond police capacity to manage’, regeneration within militant networks remained a concern. Photo: Reuters

Published: 3:00pm, 22 Jan 2021Updated: 10:07pm, 22 Jan 2021

Pro-Islamic State (Isis) activity and support for it in Indonesia declined last year, but authorities should not rest easy as militant groups are splintering to produce small “pop up” terror cells that aim to conduct jihad operations, a Jakarta-based think-tank has warned.

In its latest report released on Tuesday, the Institute of Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) outlined the factors that led to a fall in pro-Isis activity, including better law enforcement, the collapse of Isis, and “self awareness of individuals that the costs of Isis support outweighed the benefits”.

It added that the largest pro-Isis coalition in Indonesia, Jemaah Anshorut Daulah (JAD), the group behind the country’s major terror attacks since 2016, had been largely dormant since late last year.

The Covid-19 pandemic may also have played a role in discouraging travel and mass gatherings and weakening the extremist funding base, it said, adding that Indonesian counterterrorism police arrested 232 terror suspects from several groups last year, versus 320 in 2019.

With Indonesia mired in its first recession of 22 years last year, there were concerns that an economic downturn would fuel a rise in terrorism. But IPAC said there was little evidence of such a correlation in the past.