US-Vietnam defence ties expected to strengthen with new governments in place and China looming: analyst
- With Hanoi eager for Washington’s help in countering Beijing in the South China Sea, the two sides are said to have much room for military cooperation
- But they must overcome challenges such as Vietnam’s technical limitations and its lingering distrust toward the US before becoming strategic partners
The forum, which was an online event this year, was sponsored by the US consulate in Ho Chi Minh City in collaboration with Vietnam National University.
Among the challenges the two sides must overcome, Le said, are the technical limitations Vietnam faces in its ability to conduct high-level defence activities, Hanoi’s reluctance to take actions that will upset China, and the lingering distrust that Washington might seek to undermine the Communist regime in Vietnam.
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“Cooperation is still not substantive enough, so there is still a lot of room for further cooperation,” said Le, who is also a fellow with Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Washington, for instance, can step up its arms deals with Hanoi and push for greater access to Vietnam’s military facilities, while Hanoi can strengthen its military and law enforcement forces, increase intelligence sharing and cooperate more in the areas of defence technology and equipment production, Le said.
Le added that drivers for further defence cooperation include growing economic ties between Hanoi and Washington and the positive perception of the US role in the region.
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“It also has conducted actual activities in the South China Sea to challenge China’s claims, so that’s what the Vietnamese people appreciate from the US presence in the region,” Le said, referring to Beijing’s claim of ownership of much of the South China Sea, including in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.
But Le said that lingering concerns that the US might undermine the Communist government might prevent the two former adversaries from forging even closer defence ties, despite a 2013 mutual commitment that both sides will “respect each other’s political system”.
Any efforts by the US government to emphasise Vietnam’s human rights record, and Hanoi’s long-standing desire to maintain a strategic balance between the US and China, are also likely to lead to setbacks in bilateral defence cooperation, he said.
Pointing to how Vietnam had “quietly” cancelled 15 defence activities with the US in 2019 in light of the intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing, Le said Hanoi has to ensure that it does not upset China by giving the impression that it is siding further with the US.
In addition, the gap in technical capabilities between Vietnam and the US is also likely to emerge as a stumbling block between the two sides in conducting substantive joint defence initiatives, Le said.
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Despite Hanoi’s military modernisation efforts, it still lacks the capabilities to conduct complex and high-level military activities, Le said, adding that more needs to be done to help Vietnam strengthen those capabilities.
Another deterrent to stronger US-Vietnam defence ties, Le said, is Vietnam’s “Four No’s” defence policy, or no military alliances, no aligning with one country against another, no foreign military bases on Vietnamese soil, and no threat of force in international relations.
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“These principles have generally prevented Vietnam from entering into certain substantive defence cooperation activities,” Le said, adding that there is, however, some level of strategic flexibility for the country to deal with contingencies, such as if China continues to act aggressively in the South China Sea.
Vietnam and the US normalised ties in 1995, and early cooperation mostly centred around disaster and humanitarian relief and demining operations in Vietnam. The two sides established a comprehensive partnership in 2013 aimed at strengthening ties in areas such as politics, trade, defence and health.
In recent years, apart from stepping up cooperation in joint military and naval exchanges and increasing mutual visits by senior military officials, both sides have also strengthened policy coordination and information sharing.
In 2018, Hanoi for the first time took part in the US-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) Exercise, the world’s largest multinational naval drill.
Washington has also provided the Vietnamese Coast Guard with patrol boats and training facilities, while the US aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson and USS Theodore Roosevelt made visits to Vietnam in 2018 and 2020, respectively.
In 2019, The Pentagon said it would sell Boeing-made ScanEagle drones to several Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam.
These efforts have prompted widespread belief that both sides will elevate their ties to the level of a strategic partnership, something Le said would occur within five years.
However, Le said that Vietnam still has reservations about allowing the US greater access to its military facilities or conducting major joint military exercises with Washington and its allies.
“While there is ample room for bilateral defence cooperation, we should be realistic about how far and how fast Vietnam can go,” Le said. “There should be some strategic patience on both sides” unless China continues to behave aggressively at the expense of Vietnam, he added.
“Otherwise, I think we should expect gradual, selective improvements in the two countries’ defence ties.”
