Analysis | Myanmar coup set to test US role as defender of democracy, say analysts

Immediate fresh sanctions could completely cut off what limited influence the US has in Myanmar, pushing the country further into China’s embrace

But that does not mean the seasoned diplomats on Biden’s team are completely out of options to shape events in the country, say observers

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US President Joe Biden faces one of his first major foreign policy tests in determining how to respond to the coup in Myanmar. Photo: Getty Images/TNS

Published: 5:00am, 3 Feb 2021Updated: 9:21am, 3 Feb 2021

Myanmar’s coup this week is proving to be a major test of how far US President Joe Biden will go with his plan to reassert Washington as a bulwark of democratic values, and analysts say the new administration’s initial reactions show it is aware of the limits of its power to influence events abroad – particularly when up against intransigent actors such as Myanmar’s military.

The diplomatic observers, however, underscored that Biden is far from lacking in leverage and wherewithal to put pressure on Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and others behind the coup to reinstate democracy and free those who have been detained.

On the contrary, with seasoned Myanmar hands such as National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the National Security Council’s Asia point man Kurt Campbell advising him – along with sanction powers granted to him by the Magnitsky Act – the new president has “significant ability” to make his disapproval known, the analysts said.

Still, administration officials are likely to advise Biden to proceed gingerly for now as they also have an eye on America’s ongoing strategic competition with Beijing.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, pictured in 2018, already faces personal US sanctions. photo: AFP

Min Aung Hlaing and three other military figures already face individual sanctions under the Magnitsky Act, which targets perpetrators of human rights abuses and corruption, for their role in the alleged human rights abuses committed against Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims.

Immediate fresh sanctions against the country’s military, known locally as the Tatmadaw, could completely cut off what limited influence the US has in the Southeast Asian country, pushing it irreversibly into China’s complete diplomatic embrace.

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