Are Indonesia, Japan’s joint South China Sea drills a sign of Jakarta’s pivot away from Beijing?

The planned maritime exercises are seen as highlighting Indonesia’s intention to upgrade its maritime defences in the face of China’s rising assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific
But analysts say closer defence ties are unlikely to result in major arms sales, and don’t automatically indicate Indonesia wants to join the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

South China Sea

Resty Woro Yuniar

Published: 9:30pm, 29 Mar 2021

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Indonesia’s planned joint exercise with Japan underlines the Southeast Asian nation’s intention to upgrade its maritime defences amid China’s rising assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, though that does not necessarily mean it will align itself with the US-led Quad, analysts said.

Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto are set to hold a four-way meeting with their Japanese counterparts on Tuesday – the second such meeting since 2015. Japan’s Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi said on Sunday that both countries had agreed to increase defence cooperation and launch a joint exercise in the South China Sea.

Prabowo and Kishi, who met on Sunday at the start of the Indonesian delegation’s visit to Japan, will also “urge China to refrain from trying to unilaterally change the status quo in the South and East China Seas”, Kyodo News reported. To Prabowo, Kishi also reportedly voiced Japan’s concerns about China’s new coastguard law, which empowers its vessels to fire upon others in disputed waters that Beijing claims.

Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi, right, and his Indonesian counterpart Prabowo Subianto pose for a photo as they hold talks in Tokyo on Sunday. Photo: Kyodo

The defence ministers are expected to sign an agreement on Tuesday which would allow Indonesia to procure defence equipment from Japan, making it the latest Southeast Asian state to agree to such a deal after the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.

“It’s an important deal to Indonesia, which is in need of upgrading its maritime defences so hopefully [the upgrades will include] either naval or air force upgrades, but I think there is even a scope for coastguard upgrades,” said Natalie Sambhi, founder and executive director of Verve Research, an independent research collective in Perth, Australia focused on civil-military relations in Southeast Asia.

“Indonesia may not be able to confront China with numbers of ships from its coastguard or its navy, but I think having advanced equipment and exercise from countries like Japan could at least give it a sense of confidence when the moment comes.”

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Japan donated a patrol boat to Indonesia in February last year, but Sambhi said more than that would be needed to cover the vast waters of the Southeast Asian archipelago nation.

“Indonesia’s Maritime Security Agency chief said last year that they only have 10 [patrol] ships and that they need 77 ships, so those numbers are, in themselves, an immediate signal of how useful any kind of upgrades could be for Indonesia,” she said.

While details of the joint exercises are yet to be announced, they “are likely to take place” within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), according to Ian Storey, senior fellow and co-editor of the Contemporary Southeast Asia journal at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “This will underscore Indonesia’s determination to protect its sovereign rights, especially in the waters surrounding the Natuna Islands,” he said.

03:23

The South China Sea dispute explained

Japan and Indonesia have already conducted a maritime exercise in the latter’s EEZ in October last year, which involved a helicopter carrier and a general-purpose destroyer vessel off the west coast of the Natuna Islands.

Storey said the coming exercise would underline Japan’s readiness “to increase its capacity building support to the Southeast Asian claimants” in the South China Sea, where Tokyo is becoming increasingly concerned about Beijing’s assertiveness.

Indonesia is not a claimant state in the South China Sea dispute, but parts of its EEZ around the Natuna Islands fall within Beijing’s nine-dash line claims to much of the disputed waterway, which also overlap with the EEZs of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.

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Manila filed a diplomatic protest with Beijing earlier this month after spotting more than 200 Chinese vessels surrounding Whitsun Reef, which lies within both the Philippines’ EEZ and China’s nine-dash line.

Sambhi said the joint military exercise “could possibly be provocative to China” if it is held in waters around the Natuna Islands, adding that “Prabowo is engaging in quite a symbolic gesture with Japan”.

The Indonesian defence chief’s Japan visit comes hot on the heels of earlier visits to Britain and Russia, which analysts see as part of an effort over the past year by the retired special forces general to diversify his country’s defence partners.

Indonesia is keen to develop its domestic arms industry and is more interested in technology transfer deals than buying foreign military equipment outright

Ian Storey, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

“This is Prabowo’s attempt to diversify Indonesia’s defence equipment. He is also trying to get more expertise and opinion exchanges, as well as opening up a new channel of communication with stakeholders in those countries,” said Gilang Kembara, researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Indonesia.

Storey of the ISEAS said Indonesia is likely to be hoping for technology transfers, rather than arms purchases, from forging a closer defence relationship with Japan.

“Although Tokyo is keen to increase its overseas arms sales, it has so far failed to make any major sales to Southeast Asia due to the high cost of Japanese-made defence equipment,” he said. “In addition, Indonesia is keen to develop its domestic arms industry and is more interested in technology transfer deals than buying foreign military equipment outright. Japan is very reluctant to share its defence technology expertise with other countries.”

South China Sea: US, Japan and Indonesia ramp up pressure on Beijing

He predicted that Indonesia would prioritise buying maritime surveillance aircraft from Japan, rather than defence equipment such as submarines, tanks or surface warships.

Though Japan is a member of the Quad or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – a grouping that also includes the United States, India and Australia and is widely seen as a counter to China – Gilang of CSIS Indonesia said “we shouldn’t quickly conclude that, by holding a military exercise in the South China Sea, Indonesia has started to warm up to join Quad”.

“An Indonesia-Japan joint drill does not have the potential to rock geopolitical [dynamics in the region]. Maybe some countries will have questions about the drill, or they will ask for explanations, but the effects won’t be as big as when the US and Australia held a joint drill in the South China Sea last year,” he said.