Spratly Islands, Diaoyu, Bay of Bengal: is a storm brewing in Asia-Pacific waters?

The US-China rivalry has fuelled maritime maneuverings by Asian and European countries in regional waterways such as the South China Sea

China’s new coastguard law has also been blamed, but an analyst says Beijing has historically never used lethal force in its operations at sea

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An overview of the Chinese vessels in Whitsun Reef. Photo: Maxar via Reuters

Published: 12:30pm, 4 Apr 2021Updated: 9:05am, 5 Apr 2021

The latest maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is yet another sign that waters in the Asia-Pacific are turning increasingly stormy, and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.

Geopolitical changes and the ongoing rivalry between the United States and China have led to an unusual increase in maritime maneuverings and realignments in the region, and analysts say the presence of more military assets – aerial as well as naval – has heightened the risk of accidents and confrontations.

“There are certainly legitimate concerns on whether such incidents on the ground could potentially lead to escalation,” said Collin Koh, a research fellow from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

Experts also told This Week in Asia that unless Beijing and Washington were able to find an equilibrium in their strained relationship, the dangers and uncertainties surrounding Asian waters were unlikely to dissipate any time soon.

Harsh Pant, strategic studies programme chief at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank, said turbulence in the region’s waters was to be expected as the two powers continued to size up and test each other.

“The Chinese believe that the US is testing its wits, while the Biden administration feels that it needs to show its resolve in standing up to China,” Pant said, adding that while the West had become more aggressive in dealing with challenges posed by Beijing, countries in the Asia-Pacific had also become more robust in their responses.