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Plans for leadership change derailed in Singapore as designated future prime minister steps aside

Plans for leadership change derailed in Singapore as designated future prime minister steps aside

Chinese social media set abuzz as Singapore PM-designate steps aside, upending leadership transition

  • Heng Swee Keat’s health and age came under scrutiny, with one analyst praising the outgoing deputy PM’s ‘overriding consideration’ for the city state’s well-being
  • On Weibo and WeChat, the consensus seems to be that China-Singapore ties will not be affected no matter who succeeds current PM Lee Hsien Loong
Singapore
Thursday’s unexpected announcement that Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat has stepped aside as the designated successor to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has taken mainland Chinese political observers and netizens by surprise.
Chinese social media was set abuzz after Heng, who turns 60 this year, released a letter addressed to Lee that said he would likely be too old to take over by the time the crisis sparked by the pandemic is over.

“We need a leader who will not only rebuild Singapore post-Covid-19, but also lead the next phase of our nation-building effort,” Heng said, adding that he stood ready to support whomever the ruling People’s Action Party chose as the next leader.

Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore’s current prime minister, is 69 years old. Photo: Bernama / DPA
Several users of Chinese microblogging site Weibo and multipurpose messaging platform WeChat wondered aloud how such a shake-up in succession planning could have happened, given Singapore’s penchant for not leaving anything to chance.

Some typical responses included “this type of unpredictability is unheard of in Singapore”, and “everything on the island is carefully planned, right down to the last tree and shrub it plants. This is unbelievable.”

Singapore’s Heng steps aside as future PM in major leadership shake-up

But even as some questioned the impact Heng’s decision might have on a country widely seen as orderly and well-engineered, others said the meritocratic island state would be able to find a suitable replacement, with many expressing confidence that China-Singapore ties were unlikely to be affected no matter who takes over as prime minister.

Long Xingchun, president of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs – a Sichuan-based think tank – described Heng’s withdrawal as “a very responsible decision” given his age and recent medical history, a point social media users also raised.

In 2016, Heng collapsed from a stroke during a cabinet meeting but resumed his duties three months later – less than a month after being discharged from hospital.

Fan Lei, deputy director at Shandong Youth University of Political Science’s Institute for International Studies and a Singapore specialist, said the health risks associated with former stroke patients should not be taken lightly given the high workload associated with being the city state’s leader. However, Heng – who has fully recovered from the stroke – said he was stepping down because he had “too short a runway”, considering he would likely be in his mid-60s by the time he took over as prime minister.

Noting that Singapore’s prime ministers usually governed for more than a decade to ensure policy continuity, Fan said the “short runway” that Heng spoke about in his letter was a real concern.

“By offering to resign, Heng has clearly shown that his overriding consideration was Singapore’s well-being. His disinclination for officialdom and power is praiseworthy and admirable,” Fan said.

A YOUNGER LEADER

At a press conference on Thursday, 69-year-old Lee said he respected his deputy’s decision and that Heng would step aside as finance minister in the next cabinet reshuffle, set for two weeks’ time. Lee said the plan was to identify a successor among younger PAP leaders – known as the 4G or fourth-generation team – before the city state’s next elections, set to take place in 2025. 

The 4G ministers had named Heng as their leader several years ago, and he was subsequently elevated to the position of deputy prime minister in May 2019. 

A few Chinese social media users asked if the S$370 million (US$276 million) in wage support Singapore erroneously paid out last year had anything to do with Heng’s departure, after the government used the wrong dates to calculate the levy waivers and rebate payments that 5,400 companies should get.

Chan Chun Sing, Singapore’s current trade and industry minister, has been mooted as a possible replacement as PM-designate. Photo: Facebook
Some netizens said Lee should remain in power for another decade, while a handful even asked why no one from a third generation of his family could step forward to take over – the current premier’s father is Singapore’s founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew. A few also asked if the younger Lee was unwilling to relinquish power.
“If Lee does not step down, Heng will not be able to complete two terms in office. So he might as well give up. And besides, he fought a lousy battle in East Coast,” one user said, referring to how Heng and his electoral teammates retained the constituency with only 53.41 per cent of the votes during last year’s general election.
But Fan of Shandong Youth University also referred to last year’s election results – especially in Sengkang GRC, which the PAP lost to the opposition Workers’ Party – as a sign of the “anti-authoritarian mindsets” of Singapore’s younger voters. This showed it was essential to have leadership renewal and for younger leaders to take over, he said.

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Fan praised the other members of the 4G leadership team, which includes trade and industry minister Chan Chun Sing, education minister Lawrence Wong and transport minister Ong Ye Kung, saying they had so far done a credible job in tackling the coronavirus pandemic, especially in ensuring economic growth, employment and social stability. 

Long, who is also a former senior visiting fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam Institute School of International Studies, added that the country is governed by elites and has a pool of leadership talent.

“In addition to Heng, there are many outstanding talents. Singapore can definitely launch an excellent successor team and [find] a new prime minister,” he said, adding that the leadership transition blip is unlikely to affect Sino-Singapore ties, which he described as “extremely mature”.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, right, bumps elbows with Singaporea’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan at a meeting in Fujian province in March. Photo: Xinhua via AP

Singapore’s government and its leaders – as well as various sectors of society – have close ties and exchanges with China, Long said, adding that both sides understood each other very well. “Changes in individual leaders will not affect the overall situation of Singapore-China relations,” he said.

Fan said that whoever succeeded Lee as prime minister would continue the island’s friendly and cooperative relationship with China, noting that Chan, the trade and industry minister, “has a unique advantage” in continuing bilateral relations thanks to his role in the Chongqing Connectivity Initiative.

The project, which is aimed at strengthening links between western China and Southeast Asia, was launched in 2015 and has focused on financial services, aviation, transport and logistics, and information and communications technology.

“If Chan takes over [as prime minister], Sino-Singapore economic and trade cooperation should continue to improve,” Fan said, adding that even though bilateral relations were likely to be upgraded from the current comprehensive partnership to a strategic partnership, much would also depend on the development of US-China ties, which have shown signs of deterioration.

“If China-US relations worsen, Singapore will be placed in a more difficult situation and will face greater challenges in undertaking a balanced diplomacy,” Fan said.

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Weng Desheng, a news commentator and close observer of Singapore politics, noted that Heng had a long history of public service, having served in the Singapore Police Force and as principal private secretary to founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew when the latter was a senior minister.

“Heng understands Lee’s political philosophy and thoughts, and this may have contributed to his selection as [Lee Hsien Loong’s] successor,” Weng said. “There is an old [Chinese] saying about it being hard to find a general. This is the reality faced by Singapore’s fourth-generation leadership.”

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