The winter, when temperatures drop to minus-40 degrees Celsius, was a natural peacemaker. Both sides suspended patrols and eased troop deployment due to the conditions.

Now, as summer arrives in the Karakoram mountain range along the India-China border, both sides have restarted patrols into forward areas, strengthening logistics and adding infrastructure along the de facto border.

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“Summer is when activity in these regions increases,” said D.S. Hooda, a retired lieutenant general who was formerly chief of the Indian Army’s northern command that includes Ladakh and who oversaw the 2016 surgical strikes against Pakistan.

“When activity in the forward area increases and suspicion is on both sides, [when] the LAC is not marked and patrolling is taking place, there can be arguments and differences over even 100-200 metres (328-656 feet) [of territory].”

This will raise the risk of “local incidents which would then spiral out of control”, he said.

Hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbours boiled over in May 2020, leading to a skirmish at Pangong Tso. In June, an incident in the Galwan Valley left at least 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops dead.

The Hindu newspaper last week quoted a high-level source saying a minor face-off occurred in the first week of May between Indian and Chinese patrols in the Galwan Valley. The army denied any incident.

“The article seems to be inspired by sources who may be trying to derail the ongoing process for early resolution of issues in eastern Ladakh,” the army’s statement said.

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HEIGHTENED ACTIVITY

The Indian government is poised to approve the construction of a new tunnel on the Nimmu-Padam-Darcha road, which stretches nearly 300km (186 miles).

Once complete, the tunnel will allow all-weather access connecting Ladakh to Manali in Himachal Pradesh. The army has also reportedly accelerated construction of all-weather outposts for additional troops to be deployed along the border.

According to an Indian Army officer, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak on the matter, summer is the busiest period for the military to prepare for the “harsh winter ahead”.

Ladakh’s altitude ranges from 2.3km-5km (1.4-3.1 miles) above sea level. During winter, forward areas are cut off as snow makes roads inaccessible and flights are able to land for only a few hours a day, if at all.

The officer, who served in the region on logistics and operations, said the period between winters is known as the “campaigning season”. Preparation includes strengthening infrastructure – such as roads, oil depots, air fields and cellular towers – as well as arranging for supplies of men and machinery, and organising logistics such as accommodation, rations and perishable food supplies.

“We need to arrange for everything, from water supplies to batteries for night-vision goggles,” he said, adding that increased activity in forward areas can fuel suspicion on the other side of the border.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian in October said India’s measures to strengthen border infrastructure were “the root cause of tensions”.

RISKS REMAIN

“The Pangong Tso freezes during the winter,” he said. “But now, as the snow melts, both sides will carry out boat patrols.”

After China last year deployed armed assault boats on the lake, India fast-tracked its acquisition of 12 fast-moving boats fitted with advanced surveillance facilities.

In China, though, reports about the border stand-off have dismissed claims that the PLA has begun exercises in the eastern Ladakh region. Commentators have cited India’s coronavirus crisis as a more pressing concern for the country.

During a webinar on Wednesday, Yubing Sheng, a research analyst at the Washington-based Stimson Centre, said China would prefer to maintain the status quo as it confronts geopolitical challenges from the US and its own issues with Taiwan and Hong Kong.

“It does not want to open multiple battlefronts, especially with India,” Sheng said. “The border conflict with India is probably not the priority for China.”

Sheng added that Beijing was more broadly concerned about India seeking closer ties with the US and its allies.

“China tries to discredit this relationship by shaping the US as an unreliable partner,” Sheng said. “The border issue is mainly tactical. What is more concerning is India’s stance in this triangular relationship between China, US and India.”

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, the director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, said these drills improved China’s battle-readiness.

“Such drills help the PLA test how quickly they can mobilise their men and equipment and mount military operations,” she said. “They also help them test their border infrastructure, their logistics, their cellular networks.

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“This has helped reduce the time that the PLA would take to mobilise its men and resources on the border from four or five months to a few days.”

In January 2020, the PLA conducted a major military drill in the Tibet autonomous region, which borders India, involving tanks, heavy artillery, anti-aircraft missiles and helicopters.

“India assumed that they were engaged in military exercises in Tibet but because they were so close to the LAC, they could be mobilised very quickly when the stand-off started,” Rajagoplan said.

Hooda said the Indian Army would be determined to avoid a repeat of this “surprise”.

“That’s why you will find more proactive actions and a little more aggression,” he said. “The potential for something inadvertent to happen is there.”

Additional reporting by Maria Siow