China-India border dispute: as Himalayan snow thaws, could conflict reignite?

As summer arrives, both sides have restarted patrols, strengthened logistics and added infrastructure along the de facto border

Hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbours boiled over last year, culminating in a deadly incident in the Galwan Valley

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Soldiers and tanks from China’s People Liberation Army during military disengagement along the Line of Actual Control. Photo: AFP

Published: 11:00pm, 27 May 2021Updated: 9:21pm, 28 May 2021

As the snow melts in the Himalayan heights along the disputed border between India and China, analysts and military officials warn warmer weather could lead to renewed conflict.

For the past year, thousands of troops have been locked in a stand-off at various points along the 3,488km (2,167-mile) Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India’s Ladakh in the west and Arunachal Pradesh in the east, bordering China’s Xinjiang, Tibet and Aksai Chin regions.

Both sides have disengaged troops and artillery from the banks of the glacial Pangong Tso lake. However, Indian Army chief General M.M. Naravane earlier this month said there had been “disengagement but no de-escalation”. Naravane, speaking to Indian outlet CNN News18, said 50,000-60,000 Indian troops remain deployed along the LAC.

“Both sides are observing the disengagement in letter and spirit. There has been no transgression of any kind and the process of talks is continuing,” he said, referring to the 11 rounds of talks between the countries’ senior military and diplomatic officials.

He added, though, that India had kept troops along the entire front and “[they] have to be ready to be deployed in the long run too”.

The winter, when temperatures drop to minus-40 degrees Celsius, was a natural peacemaker. Both sides suspended patrols and eased troop deployment due to the conditions.

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