China and Covid-19 on minds as Australian, New Zealand leaders meet
- Meeting between Scott Morrison and Jacinda Ardern will be an opportunity to dispel perceptions of a growing gap between the countries’ China policies, experts say
- Differences were highlighted recently when Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand was uncomfortable about using the ‘Five Eyes’ alliance as a platform to criticise Beijing
The two leaders last met in person in late February last year, before the pandemic forced the countries’ borders shut. The neighbours count each other among their closest partners, with two-way trade topping A$27 billion (US$21 billion) in 2019-2020, and more than 600,000 Kiwis calling Australia home.
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Robert Ayson, a professor of strategic studies at Victoria University of Wellington, said that while he expected China to be a major topic of discussion, the two leaders were likely to play down any differences in public.
“I think both countries want to avoid perceptions of a growing gap on China,” Ayson said.
“But while there will be plenty of talking points being prepared to emphasise Australian and New Zealand common approaches and cooperation, Morrison’s visit won’t transform some of the well-established perceptions out there of divergence, including on China issues,” he said.
Nathan Attrill, a researcher at the Canberra-funded Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said the summit would be a chance to “show a return to some normalcy for international politics in the Pacific”.
“In relation to China, both leaders might reiterate the common positions they have, and the Australian media will continue to demand New Zealand go further,” Attrill said.
Peter Chen, an international relations lecturer at the University of Sydney, said he expected the talks to focus heavily on the pandemic, but Morrison would probably seek closer coordination with Ardern on China policy.
“Australia will push on China, privately, and we’ll see if Ardern has moved on this given her foreign minister’s recent statements about China,” Chen said.
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New Zealand’s exports to China nearly doubled year-on-year to A$1.38 billion in February 2021.
Australian shipments to China of goods such as timber, barley and wine have sharply declined, although exporters have offset most of these losses by seeking out new markets, with overall exports only dropping about 2 per cent to A$145 billion in 2020.
But Wellington has in recent weeks also hinted at the difficulty of maintaining cordial relations into the future.
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And in an interview with The Guardian newspaper this week, Mahuta said New Zealand could not ignore Beijing’s trade sanctions against its neighbour, warning it could “only be a matter of time before the storm gets closer to us”.
“One clear purpose for this adjustment has been to reduce the sense of a gap with Canberra,” said Ayson, the Victoria University of Wellington professor.
“That adjustment was occurring as Morrison’s colleague Marise Payne visited New Zealand last month, allowing the two foreign ministers more scope to emphasise similarity in views, and defusing the prospect of more difficult public conversations on ‘Five Eyes’ issues. More of that adjustment since then helps pave the way for Morrison’s trip – Ardern’s speech on China, which suggested some difficult times ahead for New Zealand China relations, and Mahuta’s ‘storm’ references which also got Beijing’s attention.”
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David Capie, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at the University of Victoria in Wellington, said the divide between the neighbours had been exaggerated in some quarters.
“Both are worried about Beijing’s assertiveness and its use of coercion – even if they express those concerns in rather different language,” Capie said.
“And both are deeply worried about its growing influence in the Pacific. Morrison’s visit gives Australia and New Zealand an opportunity to talk about how they can work together to provide a positive, practical alternative to China as Pacific nations try to recover from the shock of the pandemic.”
Attrill, the ASPI researcher, agreed the neighbours had far more in common than not, describing talk of a foreign policy divide as “largely a media phenomenon”.
