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Analysis | India-Pakistan ceasefire threatened by drone attack, just as Afghanistan and China border heat up
- Concerns rise after explosives dropped on Indian Air Force base, wounding two
- Each country faces possibility of conflicts on two fronts; Pakistan must manage the fallout from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, while India remains locked in a Himalayan stand-off with China
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A drone attack on an Indian airbase in Jammu has raised concerns that an escalation in hostilities could put at risk a ceasefire between Pakistan and India.
Two Indian soldiers were wounded when two drones dropped explosives on the Indian Air Force base, which is also used as a civilian airport, on June 27.
While the drones were not captured, Indian experts say there is little doubt they originated in Pakistan. Anti-India rebel groups based in Pakistan have previously used drones to drop ammunition and narcotics to terrorists in India’s Punjab. However, no rebel group has taken responsibility for the latest attacks, leading some in India to point the finger at the Pakistani government.
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India has long blamed Pakistani state-sponsored terrorism for violence by militant groups in Kashmir, a charge Islamabad denies.
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Experts said that if such attacks continued, India would be forced to retaliate, putting in jeopardy a ceasefire agreed in February. That ceasefire had brought to an end two years’ of border skirmishes that followed an attack by Pakistani terrorists on a bus carrying Indian security personnel in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama.
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