Does the new US-led ‘Quad’ with Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan have China in its sights?

Analysts remain divided over whether the new grouping is aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the region, especially its Belt and Road Initiative

Its stated aim is expanding trade, but some see a US attempt to keep military supply lines into Afghanistan open – the choice of name has also raised eyebrows

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Afghan security forces stand guard at a checkpoint in Herat, Afghanistan, last month. Photo: EPA

Published: 6:00pm, 7 Aug 2021Updated: 10:37pm, 16 Aug 2021

Little is known about the new quadrilateral framework announced last month between the United States, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan except that it is aimed at enhancing regional connectivity.

A July 16 statement from the US State Department said the four countries aimed to “expand trade, build transit links, and strengthen business-to-business ties” with an eye on “the historic opportunity to open flourishing interregional trade routes”.

Few other details were provided in the one-paragraph statement, except that the four members of the “Quad Regional Support for Afghanistan-Peace Process and Post Settlement” all “consider long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan critical to regional connectivity and agree that peace and regional connectivity are mutually reinforcing”, and would further discuss their cooperation in the coming months.

The use of the word ‘Quad’ has invited comparisons to the US-Australia-India-Japan Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Photo: EPA

The use of the word “Quad” for the new partnership has invited comparisons to the US-Australia-India-Japan Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which Beijing has criticised as an anti-China alliance and is also known as the Quad. But with such scant information to go on, analysts remain divided over whether the new grouping is actually aimed at countering China’s influence, and how effective it will be at achieving its stated aims.

Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said the new Quad was expected to have more of an economic focus. “That said, it is difficult to focus on forging economic connectivity without security, so we’ll have to see how this plays out,” he said.

Focus on Afghanistan

With the US on track to fully withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by the end of the month, the Taliban’s recent seizures of checkpoints and districts from Afghan government forces have fuelled worries of a return to civil war and instability in the region.