India gears up for Taliban-run Afghanistan as Russia, China extend influence

India supported Ashraf Ghani’s government but has a complicated relationship with the Taliban, which it accused Pakistan of covertly aiding

New Delhi has lost the strategic ground it gained in Afghanistan, and is debating how to engage with the Taliban to safeguard its interests

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Members of All India Students Association (AISA) take part in a protest in Kolkata in solidarity with the Afghan people after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. India is grappling with how to adjust to the shift in regional geopolitics. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 10:00pm, 19 Aug 2021Updated: 11:28pm, 19 Aug 2021

The Taliban’s seizure of Afghanistan has redrawn South Asia’s geopolitical map, opening a path for China and Russia to exert influence but leaving a major power, India, seemingly out in the cold.

New Delhi strongly supported and provided aid to the Kabul government under Ashraf Ghani, who fled to the United Arab Emirates and has been denounced by former allies for abandoning the country.

But India’s history with the Taliban has complicated matters. Its enemy Pakistan has long been accused of covertly supporting the Islamist group, which in turn has sheltered militants that have conducted attacks on Indian soil.

In recent weeks, as it became clear that the Taliban was gaining ground, a debate simmered in Indian policy circles about whether it was time for New Delhi to follow in the footsteps of other countries and establish a channel for formal engagement with the group.

China hosted a Taliban delegation last month while Russia’s envoy with Afghanistan earlier this week said he would meet with the group.

Now, amid the Taliban’s concerted efforts to convince the international community that it will be a moderate and legitimate new ruler of Afghanistan, New Delhi is grappling with how to respond.

Speaking to reporters after a United Nations Security Council meeting in New York on Wednesday, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar did not say if New Delhi would recognise the Taliban, only that its approach would be guided by the country’s long-standing relationship with the Afghan people.