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Afghanistan
This Week in AsiaPolitics

Afghanistan: Taliban’s divisions cast doubt on guarantee of safety for Chinese nationals

  • As the last US troops leave the country, the Taliban’s grip on power faces a new challenge – controlling dissent from within its ranks
  • The group has courted China in rebuilding efforts and promised the safety of Chinese nationals, but internal divisions could make those vows hard to keep

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Taliban Badri special force fighters arrive at the airport in Kabul after the US pulled its final troops out of the country. Photo: AFP
Amy Chew
As the Taliban looks to China for help in rebuilding Afghanistan after the United States completed its troop withdrawal on Tuesday, analysts warn there is no guarantee the group can deliver on its promises to protect foreign nationals.
While the Taliban has been vocal in courting China’s involvement in Afghanistan’s post-US future – calling it a “welcome friend” and guaranteeing the safety of Chinese nationals in recent interviews with This Week in Asia – experts say the group is riven by internal disputes between various factions, and may struggle to control dissenting lower ranking military commanders.

“Now that the Taliban have taken power, the challenge of how they rule is infinitely more complicated,” said Nishank Motwani, an independent analyst on Afghanistan affairs.

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Motwani said there was no agreement among the various factions that make up the Taliban on “who will have what power” or “how they will exercise it”.

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He warned that Taliban commanders on the ground were likely to claim “a larger prize for themselves and their fighters as they were the ones that delivered victory over the Americans and the collapsed Afghan government”.

“As a consequence, China and other countries that have shown an interest in engaging the Taliban cannot be certain about whether the Taliban group that they are in touch with can deliver what has been promised,” Motwani said.

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While the Taliban has vowed to protect foreign nationals helping with reconstruction efforts and pledged to prevent the country from once again becoming a staging ground for terrorists, the divisions within the group only underscore the country’s fragility and the daunting challenges ahead.

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