Aukus fallout: Australia, France have too much at stake in Indo-Pacific to stay angry for good, analysts say

The row over an axed submarine deal has triggered concerns from the region, with Japan worried about the threat to cooperation between like-minded democracies

But observers say France and Australia are cognisant of their shared interests at a time of growing Chinese influence in the Pacific islands

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The Royal Australian Navy’s HMAS Waller, a Collins-class diesel-electric submarine. File photo: AFP

Published: 7:00am, 11 Nov 2021Updated: 8:56pm, 11 Nov 2021

Almost two months since France and Australia first clashed over Canberra’s decision to buy American nuclear-powered submarines, the war of words between both has shown no signs of abating, sparking questions about the longer-term implications of the fallout.

Last week, French ambassador Jean-Pierre Thebault, who recently returned to Canberra after being recalled to Paris following the Aukus alliance announcement, shocked the diplomatic corp when he said the Australian government’s “deceit was intentional”.

He was referring to a leaked text message from French President Emmanuel Macron to Prime Minister Scott Morrison that was sent two days before Canberra cancelled an A$90 billion (US$66 million) deal with France’s Naval Group. The deal, signed in 2016, was for 12 diesel-powered submarines, known as the Shortfin Barracuda.

France’s ambassador to Australia Jean-Pierre Thebault. Photo: AAP

“You don’t behave like this on personal exchanges of leaders who are allies. But maybe it is just confirmation that we were never seen as an ally,” Thebault told Australia’s National Press Club last week.

The furore over the leak came as Macron accused Morrison of lying and unfairly keeping France in the dark about the deal.

Thebault’s speech and the unravelling Australia-France relationship made diplomats nervous, Australia’s national broadcaster ABC said in a report. It quoted Japan’s ambassador to Australia Yamagami Shingo as saying that while Tokyo understood France’s disappointment, he was worried about the threat to cooperation between like-minded democracies in the region.