Asia in 2022: China’s reopening after Omicron, elections in the Philippines, inflation and climate change

What does 2022 hold in store for Asia? Seven commentators give their take on everything from the ongoing great power rivalry between the United States and China, to climate concerns, inflation worries and, inevitably, the pandemic.

2022 will be an important year for Asia as it faces the prospect of elections shaking up the status quo in the Philippines, South Korea and, very likely, Malaysia.

This time, the backdrop of geopolitical tensions between China and the US will feature prominently in the election campaigns, especially in the Philippines where talk of a so-called Manchurian candidate – a puppet of either big power, but most likely China – is rife. The animus between the two rival powers will only worsen with Taiwan remaining a flashpoint, sparking repercussions for the rest of Asia.

After hosting a summit ostensibly on democracy, but in effect a thinly-disguised attempt to mobilise a coalition against China and Russia, the US now wants an alliance on trade and tech, or an economic deal, with Asia that would cover such areas as coordination on supply chains, export controls and standards for artificial intelligence. Just how this will pan out is unclear, given that the Americans will be distracted in 2022 with midterm congressional elections, but it is obvious China will be left out. What is also clear is the pressure on Asian countries to take sides is likely to deepen.

As in the previous two years, 2022 will bring another round of pandemic uncertainty and fatigue, as we continue to battle the coronavirus and its hydra-like mutations. The see-sawing between lockdowns and living with the virus will continue as new variants emerge to threaten us. The issue of vaccine equity will also cause more friction in Asia, many parts of which continue to struggle for access to the shots.

With the Great Resignation playing out in the West, especially in the US and Britain, as many leave their jobs for better options, a question Asian employers should be watching out for is whether this phenomenon will spill over into their turf. Theories abound as to whether workers are just quitting because they can job-hop, with labour being scarce, or they are holding out for a higher sense of purpose in making a living. Either way, a rebalancing between the power of labour and capital will be at play.