If Japan joins Aukus, will China, Russia, North Korea make a Rucndprk? (And will Seoul sign up to JauSKus?)

The possibility of a ‘Jaukus’ military alliance between the US, UK, Australia and Japan could push Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang into a mirror group, experts say

But while Japan has been vocal on Taiwan, it won’t want to upset trade with China. And as Seoul needs Beijing to deal with Pyongyang, JauSKus looks even more unlikely

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American, Australian and Japanese ships take part in a joint exercise in the Indo-Pacific region. Photo: Handout

Published: 12:06pm, 22 Jan 2022Updated: 5:15pm, 1 Mar 2022

To Russian international relations scholar Artyom Lukin, it’s only a matter of time before Aukus – the military partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States – grows to include US security ally Japan and becomes Jaukus.

The emergence of Jaukus would strengthen Washington’s aim of countering China’s growing reach in the Indo-Pacific region, but it might also prompt the creation of Rucndprk, comprising Russia, China and North Korea, said Lukin in a paper published in December by the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum think tank.

“De facto, it is already there, informally, and a formal linkage may be in the works, despite US officials’ claims to the contrary. Tokyo has consistently signalled that it would not stand aloof in a contingency over Taiwan, and it has been more vocal in recent months,” wrote Lukin, who is from Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok.

He said Jaukus would primarily be a naval partnership as a war between China and Jaukus countries would be fought primarily at sea.

Asked if Lukin’s predicted alphabet soup of alliances would become reality, other analysts were divided.

Some agreed Japan was likely to drift towards the Anglo-Saxon grouping, others thought it was unlikely to enter a formal alliance as Tokyo would not want to upset relations with Beijing.

“The official foreign policy of Japan is to hedge its bets. On the one hand, it will continue to operate closely with the US in military joint operations and so on, but it would hedge this closer relationship with Washington by also continuing to deepen economic engagements with China,” said Alan Chong, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore.

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