Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr might be the front runner in opinion polls for the Philippine presidential election in May, but it can’t be because he has won over voters with his stance on Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea . That’s because nobody knows what it is. While four of his chief rivals for the top job made clear their positions on the hot button issue in interviews over the weekend with the GMA Network TV station, Marcos ducked out – with his team claiming the reporter was “biased”. That did little to convince his critics, many of whom suggested the move either indicated Marcos did not want to jeopardise his lead by taking an overtly pro-China line or that his team was trying to protect him from making a gaffe that would expose a lack of knowledge on the issue. The South China Sea has long been a sensitive issue in Philippine foreign policy, with the country in 2016 winning a landmark ruling at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that went against Beijing’s extensive territorial claims to more than 90 per cent of the waterway. That case was pursued by then president Benigno Aquino III, but since then his successor as president, Rodrigo Duterte , has chosen largely to ignore the ruling to avoid angering Beijing, as part of a wider policy to befriend China at the expense of the country’s traditional ally the United States . With Duterte unable to stand for re-election, as the Philippine constitution limits presidents to single terms of six years, attention is now focusing on how his successor will deal with the issue. Speaking up The four other presidential candidates – Vice-President Leni Robredo, boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao , Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno – all took stances that suggested a departure from Duterte’s pivot to China. All four said they favoured the continuation of the 1999 Visiting forces Agreement with the US, a key agreement that enables US troops to be present on a rotational basis in the country and operationalises the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty between the two nations. Duterte has previously threatened to scrap the agreement, demanding the US “pay” for the privilege, but has since backed down. Each of the four also took a tough stance on Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, though all were open to the possibility of a joint oil exploration deal – with Robredo adding the proviso that China would have to recognise the 2016 ruling for this to happen. Robredo said that, if elected president, she would “leverage” the win “to form a coalition of nations” with the “many” that had sided with the Philippines since the 2016 ruling. She said this coalition could block the “ongoing militarisation of the West Philippine Sea” – using Manila’s term for the portion of the sea it claims as its maritime territory which includes its exclusive economic zone and Pag-Asa (Thitu) island. “We have the weapon,” said Robredo, “our weapon is our arbitral win, which will persuade other nations to help us.” Lacson said there was a need to make “alliances with militarily-strong countries like the United States, European Union countries, Japan, Australia and many more.” “Balance of power is what is needed in the West Philippine Sea and while our foreign policy should always be anchored on our national interest, we should capitalise on the national interest of other countries, which need to ensure freedom of navigation [in the sea] since 10 to 12 per cent of international trade passes through it.” Pacquiao, who met Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2017 when he signed a deal with the Chinese government to help train Chinese boxers, appeared to have hardened his stance since then. “First of all, we should fight for our rights and we should not allow ourselves to be bullied” by China, he said in his interview with GMA. However, Pacquiao advocated “dialogue” with China, claiming that a lack of discussions had held back a resolution. Moreno, for his part, said while he recognised that China would not acknowledge the 2016 ruling he would make sure Filipino fishermen would be able to fish in the West Philippine Sea. He also said territories controlled by China would “not expand as we recover what they got from us”, but he did not elaborate on how he would get these back. Senators speak up (but only some) A similar gulf opened up at the senatorial level, where three senators standing for re-election gave interviews to CNN Philippines in which they stressed the need to forge military alliances with other Southeast Asian countries and with world powers to counterbalance China’s expansionist claims. Their interviews came in stark contrast to the silence of the 10 senatorial candidates in Marcos’ camp, not one of whom has disclosed an official stance on the issue. Richard Gordon, a pro-US senator who is of American descent, urged the Philippines to forge alliances because “we cannot deal with China one-on-one”. He said asserting the country’s sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea would ensure food security by enabling Filipinos to continue fishing there. Philippines: Twitter suspends hundreds of accounts promoting Ferdinand Marcos Jnr Sorsogon Governor Francis Escudero said that “while the country cannot enforce the [2016] ruling against China, since China is very powerful compared to us, we should not drop or relinquish our interests and rights over those seas and islands.” Former senator Joseph Victor Ejercito, son of former president Joseph Estrada by his common-law partner Guia, said that while China was militarily stronger, under the Philippine Constitution “we have to protect and fight for our territorial integrity at all costs. Because of this, building military alliances with Asean [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations], the United States, Australia and Japan is the only way to ensure sea passage and maintain the trouble area as a zone of peace”. Senators in Marcos’ camp meanwhile have kept mum on the issue. They include former senator Loren Legarda who was once criticised for failing to hold a proposed investigation into the harassment of Filipino fishermen in the South China Sea while she was the Senate foreign relations committee chairperson. Legarda’s son, Leandro Leviste, owns Solar Philippines, a solar power company that has partnered with undisclosed Chinese companies to make and export solar panels. Previous form Some observers speculate Marcos is likely to take a pro-China line. Both he and Moreno have in the past been paid courtesy calls by Chinese ambassador Huang Xilian. Additionally, Marcos and his family were hosted by Xilian at the embassy last October, when Marcos – the son of the dictator Ferdinand Marcos – cut the ceremonial ribbon to open a photo wall themed on the two countries’ relationship. Among the photos was one from 1975, which shows his late father and the late Chinese premier Zhou Enlai signing a document marking the establishment of diplomatic relations. A month before that trip, Marcos had said the “policy of engagement being carried out by the Duterte government, although it is criticised, is the right way to go”. He said he shared Duterte’s belief that “if we get in a fight [with China], that war will be over. In less than a week, we will lose. Let us not think that way.” He added that he favoured a “bilateral consensus” with China. However, some observers wondered if the Marcos no-show in the interview was more about his team trying to protect him from making a gaffe. He has previously mixed up the courts involved in the 2016 arbitral victory, suggesting once – mistakenly – that it was the International Criminal Court that was involved. Philippine election body dismisses petition to bar ‘Bongbong’ from election Marcos’ spokesman Vic Rodriguez defended the decision to miss the GMA interview, claiming this was because the anchor Jessica Soho was “biased” against him. GMA defended Soho, saying she was not biased but her questions were “tough because the job of the presidency is tough”. Security and defence analyst Jose Custodio said Marcos’ team were most probably trying to shield him from embarrassment: “Less talk, less mistake. He’s the number one in [opinion polls]. They don’t want to jeopardise that with any sound bite that would be used against him.” “He has a record of gaffes in interviews,” Custodio added. “Why would he articulate [a position] on those issues?”