Ukraine crisis: why US pressure for sanctions on Russia leaves Japan cornered on its China policy and in the Kuril islands

Japan is proud of its status as the only Asian nation in the G7 and will feel pressure to support Washington’s stance as the crisis in Ukraine develops

But Tokyo will be wary of undermining its chances of a deal with Russia on the disputed Kuril islands. Even more, it fears pushing Moscow and Beijing together

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Ukraine’s ambassador to Japan, Sergiy Korsunsky, walks past a map showing Russia and Ukraine as he arrives at a recent press conference venue in Tokyo. Japan is under pressure to show its support for Ukraine but doing so could jeopardise its hopes of regaining control of long-disputed islands claimed by Russia. File photo: Reuters

Published: 8:15pm, 9 Feb 2022

Tokyo is under growing pressure from Washington to support Kyiv in the unfolding crisis with Russia, even to the extent of imposing sanctions on Moscow should its forces invade Ukraine, although analysts warn that antagonising Russia would further damage Japan’s faint hopes of reaching an agreement on the sovereignty of islands off Hokkaido.

Known in Japan as the Northern Territories and in Russia as the Southern Kurils, the islands were seized by the Soviet Union in the closing days of World War II.

Successive governments in Japan have insisted that the islands are Japanese and must be returned to its control. And while previous Russian governments have indicated that the issue of sovereignty might be negotiable or that joint economic development could be possible, the government of Vladimir Putin has taken a far harder line.

Map showing the disputed Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories and in Russia as the Southern Kurils. Graphic: SCMP

New laws have effectively made it illegal to give up any Russian territory and Putin understands that being in control of the disputed islands gives him the whip hand in any discussions with Japan. Mastery of territory that Japan would very much like to obtain can also be used to mute Tokyo’s support for Kyiv or US criticisms of Moscow’s actions in central Europe, analysts point out.

To underline the difficult position that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida finds himself in, the lower house of the Japanese Diet on Tuesday adopted a resolution expressing solidarity with Kyiv, saying Tokyo is “gravely concerned and always with the Ukrainian people, who hope for the stability of their country and the region”.

The resolution called for the application of diplomacy to ensure stability, adding that “any change in the status quo by forces is unacceptable”.

The late Chinese leader Mao Zedong with the late Soviet Union leader, Joseph Stalin, more than seven decades ago, around the time the Soviet Union seized the Kuril Islands. Now, Japan fears that pressuring Russia over Ukraine might push Moscow closer to Beijing, analysts say, making it harder to return the islands to Japanese control.

Significantly, however, the resolution studiously made no reference to Russia, stating only that the “situation remains tense, destabilised by developments outside” Ukraine’s borders.