Tokyo is under growing pressure from Washington to support Kyiv in the unfolding crisis with Russia, even to the extent of imposing sanctions on Moscow should its forces invade Ukraine, although analysts warn that antagonising Russia would further damage Japan’s faint hopes of reaching an agreement on the sovereignty of islands off Hokkaido. Known in Japan as the Northern Territories and in Russia as the Southern Kurils, the islands were seized by the Soviet Union in the closing days of World War II. Successive governments in Japan have insisted that the islands are Japanese and must be returned to its control. And while previous Russian governments have indicated that the issue of sovereignty might be negotiable or that joint economic development could be possible, the government of Vladimir Putin has taken a far harder line. New laws have effectively made it illegal to give up any Russian territory and Putin understands that being in control of the disputed islands gives him the whip hand in any discussions with Japan. Mastery of territory that Japan would very much like to obtain can also be used to mute Tokyo’s support for Kyiv or US criticisms of Moscow’s actions in central Europe, analysts point out. To underline the difficult position that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida finds himself in, the lower house of the Japanese Diet on Tuesday adopted a resolution expressing solidarity with Kyiv, saying Tokyo is “gravely concerned and always with the Ukrainian people, who hope for the stability of their country and the region”. The resolution called for the application of diplomacy to ensure stability, adding that “any change in the status quo by forces is unacceptable”. Significantly, however, the resolution studiously made no reference to Russia, stating only that the “situation remains tense, destabilised by developments outside” Ukraine’s borders. Given the pressures being exerted by both the US and Russia, Kishida finds himself in a delicate situation. “Japan feels a strong sense of obligation to join the other G7 member states in doing something when it comes to standing up for Ukraine,” said James Brown, an associate professor of international relations at the Tokyo campus of Temple University. Japan is proud of its status as the only Asian nation in the G7, but while it wants to take the same line as the rest of the member states, it does not want to be seen to be leading the charge against Russia, he added. “There are two reasons for that,” Brown pointed out. “One is the Northern Territories and Russia frustrating efforts to make progress on that issue, but an even bigger fear is that pressuring Russia might very well push it closer towards China .” Kishida is “a bit stuck,” he suggested, with a weak response to Russian aggression against Ukraine likely leading to criticism from the US and other G7 states, while a stronger resolve is almost certain to trigger a backlash from Russia and, possibly, China. The US earlier this month called on Tokyo to impose sanctions on Moscow should Russian forces cross the border into Ukraine. Kishida has said Japan would take “strong action in response to any attack,” but has not yet spelt out what that might entail, quite possibly hoping that an invasion can be averted through diplomacy and meaning that no decision needs to be taken. The last time Japan brought sanctions to bear against Russia was after the 2014 occupation of the Crimea. Those sanctions mainly focused on reducing imports of products made in the Crimea and ultimately had a negligible impact. With energy supplies to Europe from Russia likely to be one of the first casualties of a conflict breaking out, one course of action that has been suggested might be for Japan to ship a portion of its natural gas reserves to Europe, although it is not clear how long that might continue before Japan’s own precarious energy situation became affected. Countries including US, Japan condemn loss of Hong Kong press freedoms Nevertheless, the Russian ambassador to Japan, Mikhail Galuzin, has made Moscow’s position on any threats aimed at his nation quite clear. In a recent press conference in Tokyo, he said, “Remarks about so-called strong actions against Russia are counterproductive. “They would not contribute to the creation of a good atmosphere, a positive atmosphere in a dialogue between Russia and Japan,” he added. On Monday, Japan held annual events to call for the return of the Northern Territories. The next day Russia began a series of military exercises on and around the islands, including firing missiles into waters off the disputed territories that Japan claims are its exclusive economic zone. It would appear unlikely that Moscow’s selecting for its military exercises the day after Japan held ceremonies demanding the islands’ return was “a coincidence,” Brown said. “The message, I think, is quite clear,” he added. “If Japan takes coordinated action, or even talks about coordinated action, Russia will retaliate in the best way it knows, which will be more military drills, more Russian aircraft approaching Japanese airspace and closer military ties with Chinese forces.” Yakov Zinberg, a professor of international relations specialising in East Asian affairs at Tokyo’s Kokushikan University, points out that there has been virtually no progress on the question of the Northern Territories since 1945 and that there is effectively no prospect of that changing in the immediate future. “The Northern Territories has become very much a secondary issue after Japan’s preoccupation with the Senkaku Islands,” he said, referring to the disputed territories in the East China Sea that Beijing claims and refers to as the Diaoyu Islands. “What the government and prime minister say about the Northern Territories is effectively rhetoric at this point as Russia has no intention of handing them back,” he said. “And I am certain that the government here knows that, but cannot admit it to the public.” EU leaders vow unity as Macron sees path on easing Russia tensions Given the necessity to keep alive the hope that the islands will one day be returned, however, Japan will try hard to reassure Russia, he said, while Tokyo is also very aware that Russia could retaliate against Japan by sharing advanced military technology with China and North Korea. “I expect that on the surface Japan has said it will follow US policy on Ukraine, but they will be quietly reaching out to Moscow to indicate that they remain flexible,” he said. “Japan has no interest in further worsening a relationship that is already fairly strained.”