Trust in the United States among Southeast Asians grew under the Joe Biden administration, with more than half of respondents in an annual policy survey saying they were confident or very confident Washington would “do the right thing” for the global good compared to 47 per cent in last year’s survey . Confidence levels rose in particular in Myanmar and Thailand, where correspondingly, trust in Japan also fell. Trust in China improved overall, with 26.8 per cent of respondents saying they were confident or very confident Beijing would contribute to the global good, up from 19 per cent last year. But the survey, done by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore government-affiliated think tank, also uncovered variations in the overall trend among specific countries. For example, there were “palpable” levels of distrust towards China in Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam. Asian nations worry US ‘all talk, and no action’ as it tries to court Asean For Myanmar in particular, the State of Southeast Asia 2022 report said the surge in trust in the US and sharp decline in trust in China could be explained “in light of its own political crisis and hopes for resolution and leadership” from external powers like the US. On the overall dip in trust in Japan – which has ranked as the most trusted major power for Southeast Asia since the survey began in 2019 – the researchers pointed out that Japan’s strategic engagement with Asean countries had not changed in the past year. Face-to-face engagement between leaders though was limited “as compared to the higher-level touch point that Asean has had with China, in large part due to President Xi Jinping making his first ever attendance at the Asean-China special commemorative summit”, the researchers said in their report. Confidence in Japan fell from 68.2 per cent to 54.2 per cent this year. More than half of the 1,677 respondents from 10 Asean states said China continued to be seen as the most influential political and strategic power in Asean, compared to three in 10 who selected the US. Respondents came from government, academia, think tanks, research institutes, civil society, media and the private sector, with most living in the Philippines, Myanmar and Singapore. South Korea seeks to join CPTPP, but concerns remain over Japan’s stance About half of respondents (53.2 per cent) believe that China joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trade Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) free-trade pact would be beneficial, but about 30 per cent thought it would only increase economic tensions and exacerbate the US-China trade war . Eleven Pacific Rim economies, but not the US, are currently members of the pact and South Korea, Taiwan and Britain are keen to be part of it. The absence of the US from the CPTPP – who designed the deal’s predecessor the TPP or the Trans Pacific-Partnership to counter China – has strengthened the impression of an ascendant China and an escalation of regional tensions, the report said. While the belief that China is a “status quo power” and a “benign and benevolent power” has grown since last year, at least one-fifth of respondents said relations between Asean and China would worsen, up from around one in 10 the year before. Asked to choose two out of five specific ways in which China could improve relations with their country, most respondents picked “China should respect my country’s sovereignty and not constrain my country’s foreign policy choices” and “China should resolve all territorial and maritime disputes peacefully in accordance with international law”. The survey also found that in the midst of major power rivalry especially between China and the US, Southeast Asians continue to favour strengthening Asean’s resilience and unity to fend off external pressure. However, the belief that it would be impractical for Asean to remain neutral and it would have to choose sides gained traction, with 11 per cent of respondents agreeing with this compared to 3.4 per cent last year. As to which side to choose, most opted for the US (57 per cent), with the strongest support from Myanmar, the Philippines and Singapore. Speaking at a panel discussion on the survey findings, political scientist Chan Heng Chee, Singapore’s former ambassador to the US, characterised Asean’s reactions as “Goldilocks”-like, wanting it neither too hot nor too cold in terms of major power involvement in the region, all of which revolved around balancing Chinese influence. In the survey, close to six in 10 respondents welcomed a stronger Quad – a security alliance comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India largely seen as an effort to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. But they were less keen on the Aukus arrangement that will transfer US technology to Australia to arm it with longer-range nuclear-powered submarines. About 36 per cent of respondents felt it would balance China’s growing military power while 22 per cent believed it would escalate the regional arms race. On Asean’s response to the Myanmar crisis fuelled by a coup last February, overall views were divided – 37 per cent approved, 33.1 per cent disapproved and 29.9 per cent felt neutral. There was a gap in views across individual countries however. About 78.8 per cent of Myanmar respondents disapproved of Asean’s response, with the next highest level of disapproval coming from Thailand at 39.3 per cent, followed by Singapore at 37 per cent. Respondents preferred dialogue and coordination with international partners to “move the Myanmar issue forward” with only 19.6 per cent seeking “harder methods” against the generals and 9.8 per cent wanting to expel Myanmar from Asean. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University said when it came to Aukus and the Quad, Asean was “divided and perhaps a little more divided than before … Asean centrality is being tested”. As for the Myanmar issue, it had “sucked the oxygen from the regional discussions, debates and discourses”, he said. “In the recent past, the South China Sea was mentioned a lot, this time not so much. But [now], it’s all about Myanmar and Myanmar again.”