As Russia wages war on Ukraine, how long can India stay above the fray?
- India’s strategic and military reliance on Russia means it is unlikely to change its stance, say analysts – unless something drastic happens on the ground
- Delhi must weigh its options carefully, or else it faces the risk of potentially antagonising the West and pushing Russia closer to China
India has also sent humanitarian supplies such as medicines, medical equipment and other relief materials to Ukraine and neighbouring countries. But across the world, India’s partners and observers are arguing that the South Asian giant’s “fence sitting” by refusing to condemn Moscow’s invasion could cause long-lasting damage to its reputation and Modi’s stated intentions of positioning India as a global leader.
Shashi Tharoor, a former UN undersecretary-general and former Indian Minister of State for External Affairs, said India had found itself in an “unenviable position”.
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“The conflict in Ukraine … poses a fundamental challenge to India’s traditional strategy of non-alignment. The country now finds itself between a rock and a hard place, potentially antagonising the West while still losing Russia to China’s embrace,” he wrote this week in a commentary published by non-profit media group Project Syndicate.
Manoj Kumar Panigrahi, an assistant professor at O.P. Jindal Global University’s Jindal School of International Affairs, said India had refrained from taking sides as it is merely “a regional power with global aspirations”.
“The stakes are high for India to take sides,” Panigrahi said, adding that India had about 20,000 students studying in Ukraine, and the priority was for the country to evacuate them to safety.
Political analyst Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jnr said many Indians believe that American military interventions in other countries and western Europe’s backing for these interventions “automatically disqualifies them from occupying the moral high ground over Ukraine”.
Don’t expect change
Analysts say that India’s strategic and military reliance on Russia means it is unlikely to change its stance, unless something drastic happens on the ground.
Anuradha Chenoy, a Russia observer and retired dean at Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies, said India was unlikely to budge on its position because of its dependence on Moscow for some 60 per cent of its defence equipment.
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Chenoy said Western sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine could hit India as well, but “may actually present opportunities for Indian companies”.
As the conflict deepens, India has stepped up efforts to secure critical imports from Russia, such as coal, while economists have predicted lower growth rates and inflationary pressures due to higher oil and commodity prices. Indian wheat producers could also benefit as fears of supply disruptions from the Black Sea region, which accounts for 30 per cent of global wheat exports, have sent prices spiralling upwards.
“Russia has been a reliable partner. In recent years, it brought India into the SCO, and supports India’s membership of the NSG,” Dossani said, referring to the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a group of countries that seek to prevent nuclear proliferation.
Rohan Mukherjee, an assistant political-science professor at the Yale-NUS College in Singapore, said India was only likely to change its position on the conflict if nuclear forces are mobilised or if tactical nuclear weapons are used.
Mukherjee added that India would pay “minimal political costs for its subdued role because China remains an ever-present concern for the US and its allies in Asia”.
Why India isn’t joining other US allies in condemning Russia over Ukraine
Delhi remains too important to the Quad’s core mission of countering China’s growing influence, they said. Neither do they believe that India has the appetite or capacity to be a mediator to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.
“This may create some ripples in the Quad, but will not ultimately shake its foundations,” Mukherjee said.
“India has also not asked its [Quad] partners to take a position on its border conflicts with China,” Pant said.
India as mediator?
While some have called for India to broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine, retired diplomat Gopalaswamy Parthasarathy said Delhi was unlikely to act the “fool rushing in where angels fear to tread”.
“India has made its point of view clear to both sides. It is up to them to ask India to mediate if they wish, not for India to offer its services when they aren’t wanted. In any case, it doesn’t look as though mediation is something either side is looking for at this stage,” he said.
In face of Western hostility, can Russia help China and India get along?
While there may be unofficial and backchannel conversations between Delhi and Moscow, Mukherjee from Yale-NUS College said “there is little appetite in India for any more than this” given the geopolitical importance of Russia in the context of India’s rivalry with China.
Xiaoyu Pu, an associate political-science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, said India’s mediating role would be limited as it is doubtful “if Modi really has both political willingness and diplomatic skill to change Putin’s mind”.
Belarus is not trusted by the Ukrainians because of its support for Russia, Panigrahi said, noting that attempts have been made to move the location of peace talks to Turkey.
“It is still a country which supplies military drones to Ukraine, and Israel is pro-West which Russia might be uncomfortable with,” added Panigrahi.
