As Russia wages war on Ukraine, how long can India stay above the fray?

India’s strategic and military reliance on Russia means it is unlikely to change its stance, say analysts – unless something drastic happens on the ground

Delhi must weigh its options carefully, or else it faces the risk of potentially antagonising the West and pushing Russia closer to China

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India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2021. Photo: AFP

Published: 5:00pm, 13 Mar 2022

New Delhi resident Shivansh Rajeev, a web developer, believes India was right to abstain from a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As India’s biggest supplier of arms, the country cannot afford to sideline Russia, “which sells us the bulk of our weapons to keep China and Pakistan in check,” the 39-year-old said. While Indian students in Ukraine have become collateral damage in the ongoing war, Rajeev said he believes “that is the price to pay for India to maintain its strategic autonomy”, referring to Delhi’s ability to make decisions without external pressure.

This view is also common among India’s foreign policy establishment and a vocal online community that are largely supportive of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. Modi has called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold direct talks with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, while India’s permanent representative to the UN, T S Tirumurti, has called for an immediate ceasefire and for both Russia and Ukraine to return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands in Vladivostok in 2019. Photo: TASS News Agency Pool via AP

India has also sent humanitarian supplies such as medicines, medical equipment and other relief materials to Ukraine and neighbouring countries. But across the world, India’s partners and observers are arguing that the South Asian giant’s “fence sitting” by refusing to condemn Moscow’s invasion could cause long-lasting damage to its reputation and Modi’s stated intentions of positioning India as a global leader.

Shashi Tharoor, a former UN undersecretary-general and former Indian Minister of State for External Affairs, said India had found itself in an “unenviable position”.

“The conflict in Ukraine … poses a fundamental challenge to India’s traditional strategy of non-alignment. The country now finds itself between a rock and a hard place, potentially antagonising the West while still losing Russia to China’s embrace,” he wrote this week in a commentary published by non-profit media group Project Syndicate.