Japan’s Kishida eyes Asean to drum up support for Russia sanctions, China concerns
- Analysts say Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is showing the rest of the world that Japan is a ‘serious player’ in flurry of meetings with other leaders
- The Japanese leader is heading to Asean countries to seek support for sanctions against Russia; building alliances in light of Chinese assertiveness
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to have a busy diplomatic schedule in the coming weeks as he seeks to use a flurry of meetings with visiting leaders and a coming Southeast Asia tour to corral firm support from Asia on sanctions against Russia.
Having passed the six-month mark of his prime ministership on April 4, Kishida may also be eyeing a means to burnish his domestic credentials as a respected statesman with the high-intensity set of meetings, analysts say.
Nikkei Asia last week reported Kishida was planning to travel during Japan’s Golden Week from late April to early May, with possible stops in Indonesia – this year’s G20 meetings host – Thailand, Vietnam as well Europe “if his schedule allows”.
After that the Japanese leader is expected to play host on May 24 to the three other leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad: United States President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
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The attendance of the Australian leader is not yet confirmed – he is facing a federal election on May 21 and may not make the trip depending on the vote’s outcome. Biden is expected to attend bilateral talks with Kishida ahead of the Quad summit.
Separately, the Japanese leader is hosting New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern this week, and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to visit Tokyo later in April, according to Japanese media reports.
“Kishida is trying to show the rest of the world that Japan is a serious player, and that is a position that will play well in Washington,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
His efforts in Southeast Asia can be viewed as “reaching out to nations that are ambivalent or doubtful about the ‘concert of democracy’ that is rallying in support of Ukraine,” Kingston told This Week in Asia.
The Japanese leader hopes to use his nation’s long ties to the region to bolster support against Moscow, although Indonesia’s decision not to exclude Russia from the G20 meeting later in the year suggests that Kishida is not winning over every government.
But Japan’s prime minister has his own nation’s interests at heart as well, Kingston said.
“Kishida will be demonstrating solidarity with Nato and the European Union, but that is also based on expectations of reciprocity if something should happen in this part of the world,” he added, pointing out that Japan frequently finds itself at odds with China, North Korea and Russia over issues of history and sovereignty.
“Governments tend to work on worst-case scenarios, and he will want to strengthen relations with Europe and Japan’s strategic partners in Asia,” he said.
Both Tokyo and Washington will have been very relieved to see early signs that the incoming government in South Korea appears to be willing to return to being a partner in the region rather than the adversary it has so often been under President Moon Jae-in, Kingston surmised.
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Akitoshi Miyashita, a professor of international relations at Tokyo International University, believes Kishida’s multi-front diplomatic forays are in part designed to boost his political standing at home ahead of the House of Councillors election in late July.
The prime minister’s public support climbed 2.4 percentage points in mid-April from the previous month to reach a healthy 52.5 per cent, the highest rate since he was elected leader in October.
“He is doing well in the opinion polls and the public appears to be particularly positive about his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Miyashita said. Kishida’s insistence that Moscow is committing war crimes in occupied parts of Ukraine was supported by 88 per cent who took part in a poll, Miyashita pointed out.
“When it comes to something like the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, he can win support if the numbers go down but could very quickly face declining support if he mishandles the situation,” he said.
“Domestic issues are far more tricky and he faces an election in the summer, so Kishida sees foreign affairs as potentially an area where he can show his strengths and lift his support rate even further.”
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Miyashita agrees that the prime minister is firmly siding with its traditional allies on the issue of Ukraine in part due to expectations that they will stand by Japan should the need arise.
“With all these diplomatic initiatives, there are two main issues on the agenda,” he said. “The first is to increase international pressure on Russia, even though Japan is very limited in what it can do militarily. So Kishida is doing everything in his power to secure the support of Asean and other Asian nations.
“And secondly, he is building up Japan’s alliances so that if China should do something against Taiwan or the Senkaku islands [which are claimed by China, where they are known as the Diaoyutai archipelago], then we are sure to have a united front against Beijing.”
