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A supporter of Philippine Vice-President Leni Robredo takes a selfie during a campaign rally in Angeles City, Pampanga Province, on April 9, 2022. Photo: Reuters

Trolls and polls: fake news surrounds Philippines’ Robredo-Marcos showdown

  • Bongbong Marcos’ campaign relies on a long-built disinformation network that attacks his rivals and perpetuates falsehoods about them, analysts say
  • While Leni Robredo’s ratings are inching up and those of frontrunner Marcos have lost some steam, his well-funded movement and online reach still makes him the person to beat

With some two weeks left until the Philippine presidential election on May 9, the field has narrowed to two contenders: Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr and vice-president Leni Robredo, each employing very different campaign strategies.

It’s a rematch for the two: Robredo, 57, narrowly beat Marcos Jnr, 64, to win the vice-presidency in 2016. Marcos demanded a partial recount, which later showed that Robredo had ended up with more votes. This time, both are vying for the top job.

Opinion polls indicate Marcos Jnr, the son of dictator Ferdinand Marcos who ran a repressive martial law regime from 1972 and plundered the country for 14 years, is far ahead. A survey conducted in March by Pulse Asia showed some 56 per cent of respondents preferred Marcos Jnr as president, while 24 per cent backed Robredo. But Robredo has been inching forward – she gained 9 percentage points while Marcos lost four.

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Analysts say Marcos Jnr’s popularity is derived from a successful social media campaign, aided by disinformation “influencers”, pushing the message that the “golden age” of the Marcos dictatorship – which supporters argue was a period of economic prosperity – could return with his scion at the helm.

According to a Washington Post report: “Key to the messaging is that the family has been unfairly maligned, that President Ferdinand Marcos was not a corrupt kleptocrat but one that brought his country glory, wealth and infrastructure.”

At the same time, legions of Marcos trolls have attacked his opponents and critics, usually using fabricated information.

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Bongbong Marcos Jnr leads in polls in final weeks of Philippine presidential election campaigning

Bongbong Marcos Jnr leads in polls in final weeks of Philippine presidential election campaigning

‘Two-track’ strategy

The beginnings of Marcos Jnr’s online army emerged in 2009 when he created his YouTube channel, where he vlogs about his personal life and politics. It has 2.18 million subscribers today and has garnered a total of 105 million views since its establishment.

Marcos Jnr’s 2016 vice-presidential campaign relied on a network of disinformation peddlers that, far from going dormant after his defeat, intensified its efforts, observers say.

“Influencers, vloggers, meme pages, and parody pages are mobilised to post memes and videos, with the goal of rebuilding the Marcos brand and making sure it appeals to diverse demographics – including younger people who did not grow up during martial law,” said Jonathan Corpus Ong, a disinformation researcher at Harvard University. “What we have seen here is the cumulative impact of six years building up disinformation networks.”

A campaign rally for Bongbong Marcos in Quezon City, Philippines. Photo: AP

The online army has relied heavily on cruelty, mockery and fabrication in their online campaign, deriding Robredo and her followers, and churning out fake information.

Last week, a fake sex video involving Robredo’s eldest daughter turned up and was heavily promoted by trolls. Marcos Jnr officials distanced themselves from the clip and claimed it was an attempt by the vice-president’s group to gain attention.

According to Ong, the Marcos approach is more sophisticated than 2016 and follows a two-track strategy.

“His official speeches and media appearances have emphasised positive messages of unity on the one hand, while trolls do his dirty work for him online,” he said.

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Marcos Jnr has been “outsourcing the negativity and attack messages to his sister, celebrity supporters, social media influencers and fan groups”, said Ong, the author of Architects of Networked Disinformation.

“He himself has played safe by managing his live appearances and interviews, avoiding tough questions that might lead to awkwardness or gaffes.”

Government investigators estimate that the Marcos dictatorship plundered at least US$10 billion when it was in power and sent the ill-gotten wealth abroad. Critics say Marcos Jnr, who cannot explain his income, is almost certainly relying on those funds to finance his campaign.

While he also has been convicted of tax evasion, the country’s election commission on Thursday pronounced him qualified to run.

Faced with the superior resources of the Marcoses, Robredo’s camp has run what veteran political strategist Alan German calls an “open-source” campaign, that also relies on the internet.

“It is always the underfunded that are forced to be creative to give their limited budgets total bang for buck,” German said.

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‘Pink wave’ sweeps the Philippines as incumbent vice-president Leni Robredo vies for top post

‘Pink wave’ sweeps the Philippines as incumbent vice-president Leni Robredo vies for top post

The ‘pink wave’

Robredo’s camp relies heavily on a volunteer-led campaign, where supporters dedicate their time, effort and talent to carry out activities such as education outreach and the running of soup kitchens.

Others have created promotional artworks and organised dances that are captured in slickly-produced videos. A growing practice is to paint murals of Robredo and her vice-presidential candidate, Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan in the streets.

“Songwriters made songs for the campaign which are resonant and memorable, animators made videos, graphic designers made campaign visuals, and so on,” German said. “It’s a cumulative creative effort that is fuelled by the passion of her volunteers.”

A mural of Leni Robredo and her running mate Kiko Pangilinan is seen outside her campaign headquarters in Quezon City. Photo: Bloomberg

The campaign’s signature colour – a striking electric pink chosen by supporters that has been used nationwide on buses, banners, and publicity material – has energised volunteers as they seek to convince the undecided and convert hostile voters.

The result is a series of volunteer-led gatherings that have steadily grown in size and enthusiasm. During these events, celebrities perform for free, while members of the audience provide food, drink and medical assistance, as well as promotional items such as shirts, posters and badges.

When one rally in Bacolod city in southern Philippines on March 11 was threatened because bus companies said they wouldn’t carry Robredo followers, unfazed volunteers stepped in to provide free transport or organised themselves in groups and walked to the rally, which drew 86,000 people.

Tricia Robredo, daughter of Philippine VP Leni Robredo, speaks with a local during a house-to-house campaign in Caloocan City, Metro Manila. Photo: Reuters

On the ground, teams of volunteers have also organised an “H2H” campaign – or house to house visits – to convince residents to join the “pink wave”.

A 59-year-old retired marketing executive in Mandaluyong, Manila, who declined to be named, said she had led a group of volunteers into a military camp where a majority of people were supporters of current President Rodrigo Duterte. While his party has backed Marcos Jnr, Duterte himself has not endorsed any candidate so far.

“We went inside, worked in teams, we were cheerful, we didn’t respond to insults and ridicule,” she said, adding that some residents would loudly shut their gates or even let their dogs out. “We’ll be doing it again in a few days, and my son is coming along.”

Supporters of Leni Robredo cheer during a campaign rally in San Fernando City, Pampanga Province. Photo: Reuters

Heat is on

According to drone footage, the sizes of Robredo’s rallies are continuing to balloon across the country, with volunteers in each location competing to draw the most crowds. At a recent rally in Pampanga province, police estimated some 200,000 people turned up, up from 10,000 at previous events.

Celebrities, businessmen, former beauty queens, religious leaders and some local politicians have over the weeks announced their support for Robredo, creating the impression that the “pink wave” is snowballing.

In comparison, Marcos Jnr’s rallies have drawn modest crowd sizes and enthusiasm, prompting his camp early on the campaign to ban the taking of drone images. And while Marcos Jnr comes across as charming in his YouTube videos, he has appeared less articulate at live events. A recent clip showed him speaking incoherently at a rally, while campaign allies seated behind him looked distracted, chatting among themselves.

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According to Ong, “the Marcos Jnr campaign is rather boring on the surface, where their principal has played safe and avoided confrontations and tough conversations, while allowing his online armies and even his sister Imee Marcos to carry out attacks on his behalf”.

“From a technical perspective, [Robredo’s supporters] have taken more creative risks and maximised social media volunteerism and also grassroots mobilisation, opening up conversation with voters on the ground,” he said.

Given the considerable gap between Robredo and Marcos Jnr, the question remains whether the vice-president can overcome the malicious effects of the pro-Marcos disinformation network.

“All campaigns will rely on the 4Ms: man, message, machinery and money,” German said. “That will never change, unless humankind evolves to have some kind of sixth or seventh sense that will change the way we communicate and process information.”

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