US-Asean summit: Will Biden pitch his new ‘China challenge’ strategy at Washington meet?
- One analyst believes Washington’s ability to host an in-person, leaders-level summit at a time when China cannot due to Covid is a ‘symbolic win for the US’
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said he will detail a long-awaited national security strategy to deal with the emergence of China as a great power
The summit originally scheduled for March was postponed due to scheduling problems.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, political science professor in Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University said the conference’s arrangements felt “hasty”.
Who will attend?
Charles Santiago, chairman of the Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) said not inviting Myanmar’s junta was the right decision, as it lacks any legitimacy.
However, shunning the illegal junta is not enough, Santiago said, noting the US and Asean should have taken the opportunity to invite the National Unity Government comprising elected lawmakers ousted in the coup.
Hanh Nguyen, a non-resident WSD Handa fellow at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, said the “incomplete guest list” is a sign that US cooperation with Asean members under the Biden administration continues to be uneven.
“Countries that consider cooperation with the US a priority will definitely attend the summit and are more susceptible to cooperation,” Hanh said, adding the opposite is true for countries whose strategic alignment is closer to China.
Charles Dunst, an associate at The Asia Group and a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said even if Duterte and Min Aung Hlaing do not attend, getting leaders from eight of 10 countries to take part will be considered a success.
“Duterte could still attend, though; nothing has been ruled out,” Dunst said, adding the US may also invite a representative from Myanmar’s embassy in Washington, “although the expectation is that they will decline”.
Chulalongkorn University’s Pongsudhirak said without the full set of Asean leaders there, the impression could be of an Asean in “disarray”.
It will also give the impression of Biden’s “veiled desperation to keep its Indo-Pacific strategy on track in view of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” added Pongsudhirak.
Countering China
On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he will soon address a long-awaited national security strategy to deal with the emergence of China as a great power.
After more than a year in office, the Biden administration has faced criticism for lacking a formal strategy for dealing with China, the world’s second- largest economy and Washington’s main strategic competitor.
A China Daily article last week quoted mainly Chinese analysts as saying that Southeast Asian countries “should not be turned into chess pieces for a major-power rivalry” in the lead-up to the US-Asean summit next month.
Pointing out that the summit has “a strong symbolic nature” Pacific Forum’s Hanh said the meeting is also being held to reassure Southeast Asia that “the US will not be distracted by the war in Ukraine and the looming threat of Russia over European security.”
Dunst from The Asia Group and CSIS said that being able to host an in-person, leaders-level summit at a moment when China cannot due to Covid is a “symbolic win for the US”.
Major deliverables unlikely
While Southeast Asia is keen to see tangible progress on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), experts said further details are unlikely to be unveiled during the summit.
A US-led initiative widely seen as an effort to counter China’s influence, the IPEF is expected to contain elements ranging from fair trade, including labour and environmental issues, to secure supply chains, infrastructure, clean energy and digital trade.
Tan from RSIS said the summit will be an opportunity for the Biden administration to present and elaborate on the IPEF and its ostensible benefits for Asean states and the region.
Pacific Forum’s Hanh said that Southeast Asian countries are concerned the framework might include demands from the US on fair trade, decarbonisation, tax, and anti-corruption, but does not offer them market access to the US.
Additional reporting by Reuters