This time around, however, Widodo has curiously responded to calls for him to amend the constitution and run for a third term with a little less intensity.

That change of tack has been the cause of speculation that the idea – as far-fetched as it may sound now – is actually being seriously considered by Jakarta’s power brokers.

Political observers told This Week in Asia that one increasingly prevalent impression was that the powerful Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs Luhut Pandjaitan – often described as the ‘prime minister’ due to his influence – was behind the idea.

Analysts said they were particularly concerned that despite a seemingly emphatic ‘no’ from Jokowi about constitutional amendments that would grant him a third term, the idea had not been fully extinguished.

There was also a speculation that Widodo’s term might only be extended for two or three years to give him more time to complete major infrastructure projects, such as the new capital in Borneo.

While there has been some attempts to quell the chatter – most recently through a “gag order” imposed on ministers – those actions might be taken as a direct result of the president’s slumping popularity ratings amid concerns about fuel staple goods inflation.

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His approval rating fell nearly 12 percentage points from February’s 71.7 per cent, an independent pollster said on Tuesday.

“It was the people in Jokowi’s circle, particularly his staff at the [presidential] secretariat and staff office, who communicated this idea [to the masses], as well as the fact that Luhut Pandjaitan was trying to push the idea to political parties’ leaders, it is clear that the idea starts from the top. It came from [Widodo],” says Made Supriatma, visiting fellow at Indonesia Studies Programme of ISEAS- Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“He was testing the waters, then it did not work out, since there was not enough reason to postpone the elections, then he backed out.”

Emergency extension

According to local news portal Detik, the fresh impetus to postpone the 2024 general elections came in February after a meeting at a Jakarta cafe between Muhaimin Iskandar, the leader of the National Awakening Party (PKB) and Airlangga Hartarto, coordinating minister for economic affairs and chairman of Golkar party.

The two men, whose parties are part of Widodo’s seven-party ruling coalition, purportedly agreed to bring the idea of extending the president’s term – and moving the required constitutional amendments – to other allies.

Then, Hartato and Zulkifli Hasan, the head of the National Mandate Party – another ruling coalition party – subsequently saturated the local news agenda with remarks about the election postponement idea.

Among other factors, they talked up the “costly price” of a presidential election, estimated at some 190 trillion rupiah (US$13.1 billion) as the chief factor for giving Widodo a third term.

While all three are significant political figures in Indonesia, none have the clout of Luhut, Widodo’s top confidante since his time as the mayor of Solo, a small Javanese town.

Speaking on a podcast in March, Luhut showered praise on Widodo, saying another three years of the president’s leadership would have a “positive impact” on the nation.

The minister claimed 110 million people on social media supported the idea to postpone the elections and cited “Big Data” tracking of online chatter. He has yet to reveal the source of this data.

The ruling party PDI-P, to which Widodo belongs, has strongly opposed the term extension, with its general secretary Hasto Kristiyanto saying the mechanism of fixed five-yearly elections was important and the country’s “democratic culture … must be respected”.

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Widodo’s response to his subordinates’ comments in March was to merely say that he would “obey the constitution”. That response sparked speculation that political elites were pushing for amendments.

“[From the] public statements by cabinet ministers and others, I think the conclusion is that the idea of changing the constitution so Jokowi can stand again is seriously considered,” said Max Lane, a visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “Although I think at the same time no clear decision has been made on what they will do yet.”

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At a full cabinet meeting on April 6, Widodo imposed what critics dubbed to be a gag order, telling his ministers to cease talking about extending his term.

To quell social unrest, Widodo spoke on the eve of the protest to underscore that the election will still take place in 2024, his firmest statement on the issue yet.

“I ask that it be conveyed to the public that all phases and schedules of implementing the election and regional-head contests have already been fixed. I think that it is clear, and that everybody knows that the election will be done on 14 February 2024,” he said.

Widodo’s remarks did not dampen speculation of his role in floating the idea, or his support of it.

“A reasonable question is whether Widodo erred by failing to communicate his stance clearly in recent weeks, or whether his thinking on the matter finally changed. Amid these developments, Widodo remained silent other than pledging to abide by the Constitution,” Kevin O’Rourke, author of Indonesia-focused research and analysis publication Reformasi, wrote in the April 15 edition.

“On balance, the weight of evidence indicates that Widodo would have condoned amendments, had they been politically feasible. Instead, when parties made clear that they would oppose an amendment initiative in the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), Widodo finally relented.”

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Economic woes, Suharto memories

In the off-chance the ruling coalition does move ahead with plans to extend his tenure, Widodo is likely to contend with souring public sentiment compared to when he was first elected on a platform touting his political outsider status.

The recent slump in poll numbers follow the economic pain the country has weathered during the pandemic, and a burgeoning inflation crisis that has affected not just Indonesia, but most other economies.

Reflecting the government’s cognisance of the public’s current hardship, Widodo this week moved ahead with a broad ban on palm oil exports to ease inflation at home.

The current economic travails pail in contrast to the hopes Widodo elicited when he first came to office in 2014 or when he was re-elected in 2019.

Also likely to be a key stumbling block is the country’s vivid collective memory of the late autocratic leader Suharto’s 32-year tenure, which was pockmarked with crackdowns on dissent and massive corruption.

Loyalists of Suharto, who was pushed out of power by protests in 1998, had earlier in his tenure said that he did not seek to be “president for life” and would resign “if the people wished for him to resign”.

Elsewhere, some commentators are wondering if the long gestation period for the new US$32 billion national capital on Borneo, a Widodo brainchild, was driving the push to extend his rule.

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“Jokowi has always put infrastructure at the heart of his presidency so I suspect he sees the construction of a new capital city as the cherry on the cake for his legacy. The planned capital move also signifies his broader desire to drive development beyond Jakarta and Java,” said Ben Bland, author of Man of Contradictions: Joko Widodo and the struggle to remake Indonesia, a biography on the president.

After his re-election in 2019, Widodo revealed his ambitious infrastructure drive – excluding the new capital project – that will cost the nation some US$400 billion by 2024.

Most of the funding will be provided directly by the state, followed by state-owned enterprises and the rest through the private sector.

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The financial burden of the projects could force the government to sell to the private sector, which could result in the increased prices of public facilities such as tollway fees and stronger ties between top officials and business moguls, Made of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore said.

“This is why Jokowi is no longer ‘man of the people’ and now a ‘man of the elite’. I have never seen a stronger alliance between business and political elites in Indonesia than now [under Jokowi]. This is similar to what happened during the New Order,” he said, referring to Suharto’s tenure.

“But even Suharto would be jealous of Jokowi. Suharto ruled with weapons, Jokowi is ruling with public opinion, of which he can masterfully shape.”

Widodo’s popularity is also why the current economic and political crisis will not lead to larger protests like the 1998 revolution that eventually brought Suharto down from power, analysts argued.

“Jokowi still has remarkably high approval ratings given he is well into his second term and Indonesia has fallen into its first recession for many years because of the pandemic. Rising prices of basic goods … will pose a major challenge to his leadership. But he has, in the past, shown a Teflon-like ability to brush off problems,” Bland said.

As long as Widodo remains in power, the question on whether he is still seeking a third-term, despite his public address, or whether he genuinely opposes the idea, likely will not be answered before 2024.

As Bland puts it: “Jokowi is a pragmatic leader who likes to retain flexibility of action and not give his game plan away.”