Will an Upper House election win allow the LDP to amend Japan’s pacifist constitution?

Rising prices, deepening security concerns and reversing the general economic malaise are the key issues for most Japanese in the upcoming Upper House election. For conservatives, however, this is arguably the best opportunity they have ever had to secure a super-majority in both houses of the Diet and fulfil their long-held dream of revising the constitution. Japan goes to the polls on July 10, with 124 of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors up for grabs. Of that total, 74 seats are being contested in 45 single- and multi-member prefectural electoral districts, while a further 50 seats will be allocated through a nationwide proportional representation vote. Six major parties and dozens of smaller parties and independent candidates have already started campaigning across the country. Asia-Pacific leaders at Nato summit signals anti-China shift: analysts Opinion polls are consistent in the belief that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, will emerge victorious, with the only question the scale of the win. A national poll of about 61,000 people conducted by the Yomuiri and Nikkei newspapers over the weekend suggested the two parties could together secure 65 to 80 of the 125 seats up for grabs. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been playing down his party’s chances of winning the 82 seats that would give the LDP the absolute majority it requires to revise the constitution, but in concert with Komeito and a number of other like-minded parties – Ishin, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and independents – that aim becomes more achievable. “For most people, their main concerns are rising prices for energy, for basic foodstuffs and the weak yen, which effectively means that the majority cannot have the foreign holiday they have been looking forward to for over two years,” said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University. “Those are the immediate concerns, the issues that impact their day-to-day lives, but there is also growing concern over the national security situation, particularly as we have been watching the war in Ukraine on the evening news since February,” she said. Witnessing the conflict, ordinary Japanese are now fearful that China’s recent aggression in the Asia-Pacific region could lead to an outbreak of fighting, most likely over territorial disputes or Beijing’s claims to Taiwan, while North Korea is consistently an unpredictable, nuclear-armed neighbour. That has translated to 92 per cent of LDP candidates saying they are in favour of greater defence spending, according to a poll conducted by the Yomiuri newspaper, along with 96 per cent of Komeito candidates. If public support for that commitment translates into votes, then the LDP will be well on its way to securing the majority that it requires to revise the constitution. With 97 per cent of LDP candidates and 79 per cent of Komeito representatives favouring changes to the constitution – which many conservatives insist was imposed on a defeated Japan by the vengeful Allies in the immediate aftermath of World War II – plans are already being drawn up. And they appear to have the support of two minor parties, with every Ishin candidate backing reforms along with 95 per cent of those standing under the DPFP banner. What is behind pacifist Japan’s policy change to allow heavy arms exports? For most, the first change must be to amend the war-renouncing Article 9 in order to formally stipulate the legal standing of the Self-Defence Forces and formalise the nation’s right to have armed forces for self-defence, as well as the introduction of an “emergency clause” in the event of a national crisis, according to the Yomiuri poll. Toshimitsu Motegi, the LDP secretary-general, has said he intends to start work on proposals for revising the constitution “as quickly as possible” after the election, with Kishida also indicating that he supports changing a law that went into effect in 1947. The left-leaning Asahi newspaper has expressed its objections to any changes, insisting that there had not been sufficient debate in society and that there was no broad public support for revisions. Any “rash attempt” to push through changes “would undermine the foundation for good constitutional debate”, it added. Explainer: five things to know about Japan’s pacifist constitution Yoichi Shimada, a conservative professor of politics and international relations at Fukui Prefectural University, said Kishida’s initial ambitions on constitutional reform were “limited” but could pave the way for additional changes. “The changes that are being proposed are quite simple and it should be possible to win sufficient support, and that is a step in the right direction,” he said. “If this goes ahead and all the critics who have opposed change finally see that very little has altered, then it should make future revisions much easier. “Kishida has not been a strong advocate of change – not nearly as strong as [former Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe – but it looks as if he is going to have the political support to achieve it,” Shimada said. “I’m quite hopeful that finally, this is going to happen.” Murakami cautions, however, that even armed with a super-majority, the government must tread warily on an issue as emotive as the constitution. “Even within the LDP and its allies, there are differing views on whether revisions are the right course of action and what should change,” she said. “The government cannot simply push changes through without adequate public debate. There have to be clear and detailed explanations of why this would be beneficial to Japan. “Even Abe was not able to do that – although I do feel that the situation with Russia and China has changed many people’s minds and we are closer than ever before to parts of the constitution being rewritten.”