Pakistan’s Imran Khan may yet unseat Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister. But not without the military’s help

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf stunned Sharif’s ruling coalition with a big by-election win in Punjab, raising the prospect of an early election

Analysts say a return to power can’t be ruled out, if he can get the ultimate arbiter – army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa – on his side once more

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Imran Khan, Pakistan’s former prime minister and current head of opposition party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, speaks at a seminar on ‘regime change’ in Islamabad last month. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 4:00pm, 23 Jul 2022

When Imran Khan’s government was unceremoniously deposed in a vote of no-confidence in April, most political pundits wrote off his chances of ever making a comeback as Pakistan’s prime minister.

But after his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pulled off a stunning upset by-election victory last Sunday, winning 15 of 20 seats contested, many commentators now think Khan is increasingly well-positioned to force an early general election – and even win it.

“Imran Khan’s return to power cannot be ruled out. He is riding on a wave of anti-establishment sentiment, has heightened his populist rhetoric, and his political opponents are on the defensive and without a clear agenda to pull the country out of the current economic crisis,” said Raza Rumi, editor-in-chief of Naya Daur Media, a Pakistani digital news platform.

Khan gestures to supporters of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf on July 2 at a rally protesting against inflation, political destabilisation and high fuel prices. Photo: AFP

The by-election victory earned the PTI-led coalition a majority in the provincial assembly of Punjab, the most populous of the country’s four federating units.

It was poised to take control of the administration in the region but that plan appeared to have been thwarted on Friday – at least for the short term – after the party failed to reach an agreement with a coalition partner on who should be the new chief minister.

For now, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remains in control of Punjab, the party’s electoral stamping ground for much of the last 40 years.

Analysts believe it will have to surrender the position of Punjab chief minister to a coalition partner in order to prevent control of the province going to the PTI.