North Korea missile barrage could continue, nuclear test likely, as tensions stay high, analysts say

Pyongyang is also trying to refine, strengthen its missile technological capabilities through its multiple missile launches, observers note

Intensity of sabre-rattling by both Koreas and US could trigger more risks, get allies involved, experts warn

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A TV screen shows a file image of North Korea’s missile launch during a news programme at the Seoul Railway Station in South Korea on Friday. Photo: AP

Published: 5:30pm, 4 Nov 2022

Tensions on the Korean peninsula will continue to remain high even after the provocations by Pyongyang this week, with further missile launches to be expected in the days ahead and even the possibility of a nuclear test, analysts have said.

Apart from expressing anger at the recent joint exercises between the United States and South Korea, the North was also trying to refine and strengthen its missile technological capabilities through its multiple missile launches, experts added.

North Korea on Thursday fired multiple missiles into the sea, including a longer-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), though the latter “is presumed to have ended in failure”, according to South Korean officials. Overnight, Pyongyang also fired more than 80 rounds of artillery into the sea.

South Korea’s F-35A stealth fighter jets during a drill in September 2022. On Friday, South Korea scrambled dozens of military aircraft, including advanced F35 fighter jets, after spotting North Korean warplanes. Photo: Pool via AP

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol slammed the missile tests, while the US State Department condemned the ICBM launch as “a clear violation” of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

In response to Pyongyang’s attacks, Seoul fired three ground-to-air missiles on Thursday and scrambled 80 aircraft, including F-35A stealth fighters, on Friday after detecting about 180 North Korean warplanes flying north of the military border.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, project assistant professor at the University of Tokyo’s Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, said it was likely tensions on the Korean peninsula would remain high for some time as further missile launches and other forms of military provocations including nuclear tests could be expected.

“There are also risks of accidental conflicts given the intensity of the sabre-rattling,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said, adding that Pyongyang was timing its provocations and expressing its anger in response to the joint exercises between the US and South Korea.