Malaysia opposition counting on strong turnout for victory, Anthony Loke says

For Umno’s critics, its pitch to restore stability and progress if it wins this week’s elections is a mere smokescreen for its top leaders’ alleged true intentions: saving themselves from criminal prosecution.

At an event in October, Ahmad Zahid said BN has no choice but to “win dominantly” in this election or risk having more of its leaders facing “selective persecution” should PH be given the mandate to rule for a second term.

James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania, said the Umno-led BN coalition’s promise of a return to stability would translate into the wiping out of any reformist gains made in the years since it last held power.

“If Barisan Nasional wins then the last four years did not exist,” Chin told This Week in Asia. “It will be like a dream, the country will revert back to [before] 2018.”

Umno’s electoral gamble may backfire

Umno’s top leadership was emboldened to push for an early election by the party’s resounding wins in two recent state polls and the fact that it had managed to reclaim the premiership through Ismail Sabri after months of political manoeuvring.

But the gamble may yet backfire. Nearly 6 million new voters are eligible to cast their ballots in this week’s election – a figure boosted by Malaysia lowering its voting age from 21 to 18 since the last polls. Also, three major coalitions are contesting this time, instead of just two, making the outcome even more difficult to forecast.

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“There is a rising possibility that at least three or more parties/coalitions are needed to cooperate to form a government with a simple majority,” pollster Merdeka Centre said in a pre-election survey.

Another problem facing Umno is its unpopular president, who is rumoured to be putting plans in place to claim the country’s top office for himself if the party comes out on top.

Ahmad Zahid was elected as party president after Najib resigned following Umno’s defeat in the 2018 polls, and is the first to hold the office without simultaneously being the country’s prime minister.

The 69-year-old has called Ismail Sabri BN’s “poster boy” for the premiership, but the coalition faces a trust deficit after it went back on a similar pledge to retain Johor’s chief minister when it won state polls there in March.

“If they win big and [Ahmad Zahid] becomes prime minister, his cases will be dropped along with Najib’s 1MDB cases and other crooks that lead Umno and Barisan Nasional,” said the elder statesman, who himself led Umno for 22 years during his first premiership.

“This is Barisan Nasional’s struggle. A struggle for their own self.”

PH made its pitch even simpler, saying a vote for BN was a vote for Ahmad Zahid as prime minister.

Horse-trading expected if no clear winner

“I’m certain that they will work together, and we know that Anwar and Zahid have met,” Mahathir said. Both Anwar and Ahmad Zahid have denied the claim.

James Chai, a visiting fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said there would be a massive backlash against Anwar if he were to strike such a deal with Umno.

“The public would not be able to accept as it would go against what was promised to them: a fight against corruption and to never drop corruption cases for political reasons,” he said.

Chai said Anwar appeared reluctant to attack his former protégé Ahmad Zahid, but would not go so far as to risk such an arrangement just to secure the premiership as he would lose popularity and hand ammunition to those seeking his overthrow.

“Anwar couldn’t govern under that circumstance as well,” he said.

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“He will fall ill if Anwar on the 20th of November becomes prime minister … he will be the first to fall ill,” Anwar said of Mahathir at a campaign stop, referring to himself in the third person. “But I pray for his good health.”

Rafizi Ramli, deputy president of Anwar’s People’s Justice Party (PKR), sees no reason for secret deals as he expects PH to score more than 100 seats in the polls – based on a study by big data analytics firm Invoke, which he founded.

Public support for Umno plummeted nine percentage points to just 18 per cent when parliament was dissolved, said Rafizi, who believes PH will come out with the largest share of seats on the Malay Peninsula.

This puts the semi-autonomous states of Sabah and Sarawak on Malaysian Borneo in something of a kingmaker role, he said. Sarawak recently assumed such a role when its ruling coalition of local parties, dubbed Gabungan Parti Sarawak (Sarawak Parties Alliance – GPS), backed Muhyiddin as the country’s eighth prime minister following 2020’s political coup.

“I think when the time comes, common sense will prevail on the part of Sabah and Sarawak,” Rafizi said. “That is why I am not interested in talking about [Mahathir’s party], Perikatan Nasional or Barisan Nasional.”

Razlan Rafii, a member of Umno’s supreme council, responded to the claims by saying there was “no proof that there is waning support” for the party, telling local media that it was BN, not PH, which had won seven by-elections since 2018.

Undecided voters could still swing it

Surveys and polls may suggest otherwise, but political analyst Bridget Welsh said speaking to voters on the ground during her nationwide election tour had convinced her that there was still an “unprecedented amount” of people who were undecided.

“The key is who captures them. They are the last minute swing,” Welsh said.

PH hit the ground running in its bid for the top spot, pipping its competitors to the post by unveiling its slate of candidates and election manifesto first. Rafizi, PKR’s deputy president, said he’d been campaigning in different towns every night to leverage his popularity and win votes.

BN, meanwhile, took nearly a month after parliament was dissolved to launch its manifesto – becoming the last of the big three coalitions to do so.

Tunku Mohar, an analyst from the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said Umno’s initial fervour about its “best chances to win” had since died down when the new electoral realities hit home.

“There’s disquiet in Umno, especially since nomination day and the events since that showed Pakatan Harapan is gaining momentum,” he said.

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Umno’s candidate nomination process was fraught with conflict after Ahmad Zahid dropped prominent and long-time party “warlords”, some of whom retaliated by contesting as PN candidates.

Some grass-roots supporters have shown their displeasure with the candidates’ list by shutting down campaign centres and taking down party flags and banners.

A combination of Ahmad Zahid’s unpopularity, the packed field of candidates contesting the polls and BN’s internal strife could give PH the edge, but Tunku Mohar said victory may yet elude Anwar’s coalition if it fails to get its voters to turn out in force.

“Even voter turnout in their party election was rather low. It’s difficult to read the voters’ minds this time around,” he said.

“In this respect, this election is Pakatan Harapan’s to lose.”