South China Sea: as US eyes a Subic Bay return, was Chinese ‘coercion’ of Philippines the reason?

The proposed return of US forces to a vast former military base in the Philippines after a three-decade-long absence looks set to heighten superpower rivalry in the South China Sea, as it weighs on Manila-Beijing relations.

Subic Bay was once home to the United States’ largest naval base in Asia – almost the same size as the whole of Singapore – but disagreements over leasing costs in the post-Cold War era led to the withdrawal of American troops from the facility in 1992.

That could all be about to change, however, after reports emerged late last month that the site is likely being considered as a new location under the US-Philippines Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows the US to build and operate facilities on Philippine military bases and rotate in troops for prolonged stays.

First signed in 2014, the EDCA was laid aside after former President Rodrigo Duterte took office in 2016 as he looked to forge closer ties with China.

But the pact has now been revived under his successor Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, whose defence department put out a statement last month saying the Philippines was working with the US to speed up EDCA projects at existing sites, and “exploring new locations that will build a more credible mutual defence posture”.