Why it ‘doesn’t hurt’ Middle East nations to avoid taking sides in China-US rivalry narrative of the West
- Xi Jinping’s trip to Saudi Arabia allows the country to make ‘sovereign decisions’, irrespective of the agenda of the US, analysts said
- For Saudi Arabia, as well as the neighbouring UAE and Qatar, there is a need to show their relevance internationally, one analyst said
China, Saudi Arabia sign 34 energy and investment deals during Xi visit
“If the Gulf and others become major players in these countries, that’s going to mean that the state of these countries and regions will become more multipolar,” said Guy Burton, a Brussels-based adjunct professor of international relations and author of China and Middle East Conflicts.
Then “we may well see more transactional relationships developing” in which both China and the Gulf Arab states “look to increase their influence with these regional/partner/debtor countries”, he said.
Growing multipolarity will mean these developing countries will “potentially be able to play their external partners off against each other, to minimise rise and maximise opportunity [of investment, security, et cetera]”, he said.
“By providing bailout help at such a scale, the Gulf states have established themselves as central players in the MENA region’s development aid landscape,” IISS said in a research report published on November 17.
How China is helping the Middle East pivot away from oil
It is also the largest trading partner, foreign direct investor, and lender in sub-Saharan Africa.
Beijing restructured about US$19 billion worth of loans to Africa between 2000 and 2019, according to research published by the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.
Beijing in August announced it was forgiving 23 zero-interest loans to 17 African countries.
Chinese foreign direct investment to Africa has surpassed the US since 2013, and at US$4.2 billion in 2020 was double that coming in from America.
Looking to catch up, the US announced on Tuesday that it would invest US$55 billion in sub-Saharan Africa over the next three years, including US$15 billion in private trade and investment ventures.
Ironically, maintaining the geopolitical status quo in the Middle East, wherein the US has ensured the security and stability of Saudi Arabia and the five other oil- and gas-rich Gulf Arab monarchies for more than 40 years, will be key to the success of the deals struck in Riyadh, analysts said.
Xi’s visit did not represent a shift of geopolitical allegiance by Saudi Arabia from the US camp to China’s, as has been widely suggested by the international – mostly Western – media, they said.
Instead, Xi’s visit has enabled Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de factor ruler, to once again assert Riyadh’s right to make “sovereign decisions”, irrespective of the political agenda of its security guarantor the US, analysts said.
For Saudi Arabia, in particular, as well as the neighbouring United Arab Emirates and Qatar, there is a need to show their relevance internationally, and to lead in region-wide projects, he said.
Regarding the recent China-Saudi Arabia, Brussels-based professor Burton said that it was “as much about optics as anything else”.
While China has “no intention of replacing the US” in the Gulf and the Saudis “aren’t about to blow up” their alliance with Washington, “it doesn’t hurt” them if Beijing comes across as more powerful or Riyadh seems more independent than they actually are, Burton said.
“It helps them not just in the eyes of the US, but with other partners inside and outside the region as well if they give off this impression,” he said.
But there won’t be a sudden surge in the immediate aftermath of the signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between China and Saudi Arabia during Xi’s visit, analysts said.
Though it does continue “the momentum of an upwards trend in Sino-Saudi economic relations in the last decade”, Chay said, adding it is a “catalyst for further investments to take off”.