Recent changes to Japan ’s defence policy are expected to dominate the agenda when Tokyo’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi travels to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart before the end of December. In its revised National Security Strategy, Japan is set to refer to China as an “ unprecedented strategic challenge ”, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has also announced plans for a major increase in defence spending over the next five years. Hayashi visit will be the first by a Japanese foreign minister in three years. Details of the trip are being discussed by the two governments, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK. Relations between Tokyo and Beijing have worsened in those three years, with the two sides diverging on a number of issues, most notably on Taiwan and territorial issues in the East and South China Seas. Japanese media reports say Hayashi will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to “explain” the reasoning behind changes in Japan’s defence stance, although critics of what they call his dovish approach to Beijing see no need for Tokyo to justify its security policies. Political conservatives – long suspicious of Hayashi’s perceived pro-China bias – are also concerned that he could be strong-armed on defence issues. “China has for some time been trying to arrange for Hayashi to go to Beijing for talks, and it is well known that he has extensive contacts in China,” said Go Ito, an international-relations professor at Tokyo’s Meiji University. “Until now the timing was probably not perfect, but now that [Chinese President] Xi Jinping has consolidated his power in the Communist Party and the structure there has been set for some time to come, now is a good time from Beijing’s perspective.” Will Japan’s new China-friendly foreign minister help to thaw ties? Ito said there was no reason for Japan to “explain” its defence policy to China, as Tokyo’s defence spending was “far smaller” than Beijing’s. “China’s defence budget is five times that of Japan and the gradual increases in spending that the government here is planning are dwarfed by those of China over the last decade,” Ito said. In 2022, China’s military budget stood at US$230 billion – the second-largest in the world behind the United States – up from US$131 billion in 2014. In contrast, Japan’s defence budget last year stood at US$37.8 billion, with the government aiming to increase it to US$65.4 billion, equivalent to 2 per cent of GDP, by 2027. Yoichi Shimada, a international-relations professor at Fukui Prefectural University, said there was deep concern about the trip within Japan’s conservative circles, who have long been unhappy with Hayashi’s political and business ties to China. Hayashi serves as chairman of a bipartisan Japan-China friendship association, which critics claim has left-leaning tendencies – as underlined by the fact that its vice-chairman is Kazuo Shii, chair of the Japanese Communist Party. “There are fears [Hayashi] could be swayed by Beijing on issues such as defence policy,” Shimada said. “And the government is likely to claim that this is merely an attempt to build better relations with China through dialogue to reduce tensions, but there is very little trust in Hayashi in this role and the fear has to be that he will seek to influence Kishida once he returns from Beijing.” Japanese ‘angry’ at Chinese maritime actions, want Tokyo to take firmer stance The Diaoyu Islands , which Beijing claims but Japan administers and calls the Senkakus, will also be discussed at the meeting, according to NHK. Hayashi is expected to make clear that the islands in the East China Sea are an “inherent part” of Japan and to request that China stop dispatching government vessels to the surrounding territorial waters. But analysts are not upbeat about a resolution to the island dispute, as both countries are “just too far apart on the question of sovereignty”, Ito said. “I anticipate that Hayashi will state Japan’s position and then Wang will do the same for the Chinese side” he said. Other issues to be addressed will include the Ukraine war and trade, which has been disrupted by the pandemic . Hayashi is reportedlykeen to resume bilateral private-sector exchanges, which have dropped off significantly in recent years, but progress in this area is likely to hinge on the spread of coronavirus in China and lingering travel restrictions. Japan and China marked the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of diplomatic relations earlier this year and Kishida held his first in-person talks with Xi in Bangkok in November, during which the two leaders agreed to arrange Hayashi’s trip to Beijing before the end of the year.