China-Japan relations: past the point of no return amid Tokyo’s military build-up?

China sees Japan’s huge defence spending plans as ‘hostile’ while Tokyo views Beijing recent ‘coercive’ actions as ‘existential threats’, analysts say
They caution ‘a reciprocal quid pro quo’ on Taiwan may be required for the two sides to maintain their ‘mutually beneficial yet awkward relationship’

Japan

Maria Siow

Published: 6:01pm, 8 Jan 2023

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Japan’s plans to boost military spending to levels not seen since World War II look set to further weaken its already shaky ties with China, as the long-time regional rivals eye each other with increasing suspicion.

Tokyo last month referred to China as a “threat” for the first time in a draft of its revised National Security Strategy, as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida justified doubling Japan’s defence budget over the next five years by saying his country and its people were at a “turning point in history”.

He cited at the time growing tensions over Taiwan and Tokyo’s worries for disputed islands in the East China Sea that it currently controls – but to that list could be added Beijing’s militarisation of the South China Sea and its “growing track record of coercive behaviour”, said Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor of politics and international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University.

“Each are existential threats to Japan’s economy by potentially disrupting sea lines of communication and weaponising technology and rare earth supply chains,” Nagy said, further warning that Tokyo’s ties with Beijing may already “have crossed the Rubicon” – or passed the point of no return.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida justified a massive increase to defence spending by saying his country was at a “turning point in history”. Photo: AFP

China certainly sees Japan’s moves to boost defence spending and attain so-called counterstrike capabilities as “hostile” to Chinese interests, said Andrew Yeo, a politics professor and director of Asian studies at The Catholic University of America in Washington.

But he said there could be “space for Tokyo and Beijing to dial back tensions” if China’s relations with the United States – Japan’s key security ally – improved, because “Tokyo often follows [takes] its cues from Washington”.

US-China relations have been locked in a downward spiral in recent years amid disputes over trade, technology, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and Taiwan.

An in-person meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 Bali summit in November fuelled optimism that bilateral ties might be getting back on track, before a close call at the end of the year involving a Chinese fighter jet and a US reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea ratcheted up tensions again.

Military moves whip up ‘frustration and distrust’

Japan has had its own defence headaches to deal with in recent weeks, scrambling jets on New Year’s Day to keep tabs on a Chinese military drone that flew near its southernmost islands – after earlier sounding the alarm about a strike group led by China’s flagship aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, carrying out drills in the western Pacific.

Meanwhile, a planned visit to Beijing last month by Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to “explain” Tokyo’s recent defence policy moves was postponed to this year as China eased its strict zero-Covid policy and cases surged.

Both sides’ recent military moves were “a major source of frustration and distrust” for the other, said Akitoshi Miyashita, an international-relations professor at Tokyo International University, who cautioned that nationalist elements could use the bellicose behaviour to pressure their respective governments into taking a more hardline approach.

Bilateral ties were unlikely to “improve significantly in the near future”, he said, but neither were they doomed to take a nosedive “as long as Beijing and Tokyo refrain from taking action that would be seen by the other side as an attempt to alter the status quo”.

Japan’s largest escort ship “Izumo” (centre) sails with the military vessels of some 12 other countries during an “International Fleet Review” held by Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force in November. Photo: Jiji Press via AFP

Achieving this would entail Tokyo taking a firm anti-independence stance on Taiwan while Beijing would have to reject forced reunification with the self-ruled island, according to the International Christian University’s Nagy, who said “fostering a mutually beneficial – yet awkward – relationship going forward will require a reciprocal quid pro quo.”

Even as it pursues a military build-up that would make its defence budget the third-largest in the world, Nagy said Japan still “has the door open” to cooperation with China on healthcare, the environment, education and denuclearising the Korean peninsula.

Other countries in the region regard Japan as “a member of good standing in the international community”, he said, adding that “they see Japan’s increased defence spending as important in balancing China’s rapid militarisation and helping to stabilise the region.”

The greatest security fear for Japan is an American retreat from the region

Akitoshi Miyashita, international-relations professor

Miyashita said this was especially true of the other three members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, a grouping of Japan, Australia, India and the US that is widely seen as aimed at countering China’s rising influence.

“The greatest security fear for Japan is an American retreat from the region due to the rise of isolationism at home,” Miyashita said. “Japan’s greater military contribution is certainly welcome from the point of view of burden sharing but is also expected to strengthen trust among Quad members.”

The Catholic University of America’s Yeo noted that South Korea had been “a bit more circumspect” regarding Tokyo’s new security strategy due to concerns that Japan might launch a strike against North Korea without Seoul’s consent.

Japan can do more to ease China, South Korea worry on defence shift: analysts

Japan’s increased defence spending on space and maritime domain awareness capabilities – such as over-the-horizon radar and cybersecurity – could contribute to the Quad’s interest in securing stable sea lines of communication, said Nagy, who added that most countries in the region supported a more diplomatically proactive Japan as embodied by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Abe, who was assassinated last year, first proposed the Quad grouping in 2007 and remained its champion throughout the rest of his life as he also promoted the concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” aimed at promoting and establishing the rule of law, freedom of navigation, and free trade.