Myanmar coup anniversary: ‘Hatred of junta’ mounts as military ruler Min Aung Hlaing plans polls
- Any polls will fall short of democratic standards, and prospects for peace and stability are ‘extremely bleak’ this year, critics say
- Analysts call for global commitment to end junta’s widespread abuses through targeted sanctions and accountability for atrocities
The allegations, which observers say had no basis, justified the coup which has pitched Myanmar into violence as the military contends with a large, increasingly organised rebellion of ordinary citizens and armed ethnic rebel groups.
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Thousands of pro-democracy activists have been killed or jailed and civilians have come under frequent artillery and air strikes, while the widespread insurgency has also inflicted heavy losses on the army.
Last week the junta rolled out an election law for political parties to contest a poll it has said will take place in late 2023 despite the violence.
“If an election happens, it will be neither free and fair nor inclusive across the entire country,” said Hunter Marston, a researcher on Southeast Asia at the Australian National University, adding the prospects for peace and stability this year were “extremely bleak”.
The junta craves some form of legitimacy and sees parliamentary politics “as a respected way of organising political life, even if under military tutelage”, according to Renaud Egreteau, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong.
“However, there are so many obstacles along the way,” Egreteau said, noting that “hatred of the junta” was genuinely widespread among most constituencies in the country.
A boycott by citizens of any polls steered by the military is likely, while Egreteau said there is no guarantee of safety in a country scorched by violence.
“Armed resistance groups may well disrupt the process, or prevent election officials from operating in areas under their control,” Egreteau said, adding that massive vote rigging by the regime was likely.
An election “sabotaged from the start” was also unlikely to be endorsed by the region, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and even China who might not support “a massively distorted vote”, Egreteau added.
Economic misery
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s economy is in free fall as Min Aung Hlaing struggles to enforce the junta’s writ across the country.
“The country is completely destabilised. How can anyone do business in such a dire situation?” Htwe Htwe Thein, an associate professor at Australia’s Curtin University, said, describing the economy as “ruined” with local currency kyat losing 40 per cent of its value.
Myanmar’s economy contracted nearly 20 per cent in 2021 on the double blow of coup and pandemic. The World Bank forecast a slow 2 per cent growth in 2022 and 2.6 per cent this year – well below the average 6-7 per cent of the years before the coup.
The UN says around 700,000 people have fled the country, many of them young, as the gradual economic gains in the decade preceding the coup are wiped out. Another 1.2 million people are internally displaced, among them 250,000 children, the UN has said, while humanitarian aid has petered out.
Myanmar opium production surges as poor economy pushes more into drug trade
In an indication of an economy in reverse, poppy cultivation and opium production have increased sharply among poor farmers in conflict areas who have lost jobs as the country implodes.
A report released last week by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime said production of opium – the base ingredient of heroin – had hit a nine-year high, totalling nearly 795 metric tonnes in 2022. That is nearly double the production of the year before.
“Farmers in remote, often conflict-prone areas in northern Shan and border states have had little option but to move back to opium,” said Jeremy Douglas, UNODC regional representative.
Diplomatic ante upped?
Myanmar has refused to end its ruthless crackdown despite a rare move by Asean to demand a fellow member to plot a clear path to peace.
Indonesia, chair of Asean this year, is under pressure to break the deadlock – with rights groups even floating the idea of suspending Myanmar from the regional bloc.
But experts say Asean first needs to bridge internal divisions between junta allies among nations of the Mekong – such as Thailand and Vietnam – and opponents of the chaos it has sent across the region, such as Indonesia and the Philippines.
Indonesia said earlier this month it would set up a special envoy’s office to deal with the post-coup crisis in Myanmar.
Htwe Htwe Thein from Curtin University said that given the junta’s “eroding legitimacy”, its relationship with Asean was expected to get “tougher and more decisive” under Indonesia’s chairmanship this year.
Western nations, led by the US, have sanctioned key members of the junta and their families but the economic restrictions appear to have failed to make the military leadership bend as it seeks to wipe out – rather than negotiate with – the resistance.
“Ending the Myanmar junta’s widespread abuses needs a global commitment to impose pressure through targeted sanctions and accountability for atrocities,” Elaine Pearson, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said earlier this month.
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According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, at least 2,600 people have been killed since the start of the coup. Others estimate the real number is many times higher.
“There are reasonable grounds to believe that the junta committed crimes against humanity,” advocacy group Fortify Rights said in a report last week, arguing it meets “the standard required by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant”.
Fortify Rights and 16 people from Myanmar have filed a criminal complaint in Germany seeking punishment of Myanmar’s generals for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity, including a 2017 crackdown on minority Rohingya Muslims.
Friends in Moscow
As its international isolation deepens, experts say Myanmar will hope for diplomatic protection from China – and turn to Russia for weapons. Min Aung Hlaing has visited Russia three times since the coup.
An important economic partner with a long shared border, China has prevented sanctions from being imposed on Myanmar at the UN and has continued to invest in the country after the coup.
However, Marston said China had been reluctant to give the junta full backing, pointing to the talks that Beijing conducted with the ethnic armed groups to “hedge against the military junta’s potential collapse”.
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“Is the Chinese government going to get tired of sticking by a destabilised Myanmar?” Htwe Htwe Thein added. “We cannot rule this out.”
Htwe Htwe Thein said foreign weapons and investment should be pulled from Myanmar, citing the broad global response in defence of Ukraine since Russia’s invasion as a measure of what the international community can do if it chooses to.
“Comparing what the world has done for Myanmar to what they have done for Ukraine, the people of Myanmar are getting short-changed,” she said.