Cambodia’s Hun Sen wants ‘back in Beijing’s orbit’ during China visit amid balancing act with US

During this week’s trip to China, Hun Sen is expected to seek financial support for high-speed rail projects and ease Beijing’s concerns about US-Cambodia ties
Washington has often warned Cambodia over its growing military ties with Beijing and Phnom Penh’s poor human rights record

Asean

Maria Siow

Published: 8:30am, 6 Feb 2023

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Apart from seeking China’s financial support for its development projects including Cambodia’s first high-speed rail project, Prime Minister Hun Sen’s visit to China this week is also aimed at securing greater support from Beijing in case of western sanctions, analysts said.

The three-day trip – expected to begin on Thursday – is also aimed at easing China’s concerns about Cambodia’s growing ties with the United States and Japan, experts said.

Cambodia is seeking to upgrade two of its rail lines to high-speed services that will connect capital Phnom Penh with the southwestern city of Sihanoukville and the border with Thailand.

Astrid Norén-Nilsson, senior lecturer and director of studies at the Centre for East and South-East Asian Studies in Sweden’s Lund University said the success of the Sihanoukville-Phnom Penh Expressway which opened in October has shown infrastructure development “has a positive effect on the Cambodian government’s image and popularity”.

“[This] makes the projects now on the table of utmost importance to the [Cambodian] government,” Norén-Nilsson said.

Hun Sen’s trip comes on the third anniversary of his last visit to China, which took place amid growing concern about the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020.

Bunna Vann, co-founder of The Thinker Cambodia, a digital commentary and analysis forum on foreign affairs, said Hun Sen’s trip is also scheduled ahead of the country’s general election in July.

Vann said Hun Sen is likely to seek “a political guarantee from China if Western countries, especially the United States and European Union countries, put serious sanctions on the regime, resulting from the political crackdown on opposition [figures] and activists”.

He added that Hun Sen would also need significant political support from China to ensure the smooth political transition to his son Hun Manet, who is currently the deputy commander in chief of the army.

Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen (L), who has led the country for more than three decades, has backed his eldest son Hun Manet to take over the top job, paving the way for a political dynasty. Photo: AFP/File

Given Cambodia’s recent efforts in trying to improve ties with the US, the visit will hopefully address China’s scepticism and “put Phnom Penh back in Beijing’s orbit”, Vann added.

In December, Hun Sen met US ambassador Patrick Murphy in a visit described as a “rare gesture” by local media that could elevate ties relations between Cambodia and the US which has eased over Phnom Penh’s support for Ukraine over Russia in the ongoing war.

Washington has often warned Cambodia over its growing military ties with China and Phnom Penh’s poor human rights record, including its arrests and imprisonment of dissidents, political activists and opposition politicians.

Abdul Rahman Yaacob a PhD candidate with the National Security College at the Australian National University said the “rare visit” between Hun Sen and Murphy could have caused some concerns in Beijing.

“The visit to the US embassy could signal to China that he has other options if relations with China do not bring the expected economic benefits,” he said, adding that Hun Sen is playing a balancing game in dealing with China and the US.

Cambodian military officials I spoke to understand the need to exercise caution in developing closer military relations with China

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, Australian National University PhD candidate

Even though Cambodia relies on China for many of its defence needs such as military supplies and the modernisation of its maritime capabilities, Abdul Rahman Yaacob said this does not imply it is moving militarily closer to China.

“Cambodian military officials I spoke to understand the need to exercise caution in developing closer military relations with China, given that their next-door neighbour, the Vietnamese, has a territorial dispute with the Chinese,” he said.

Pointing to the pushback by Cambodia against specific Chinese proposals during discussions on upgrading the Ream Naval base, Abdul Rahman Yaacob added that Phnom Penh prefers to have a broader range of foreign security partners.

Cambodia caught in the middle of US-China clash over South China Sea bases

“The issue is whether these potential foreign partners have the will and capacity to forge closer defence relations with Cambodia,” he added.

Norén-Nilsson said Cambodia has further diversified its foreign policy by strengthening ties with Japan and taking a different stance from China on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Last year, Cambodia allowed Japanese forces to make regular visits to its Ream Naval Base near the South China Sea. After Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Cambodia cosponsored the UN resolution on the situation in Ukraine and expressed “grave concerns”.

“The visit signals that for China, none of this jeopardises the strength of the “ironclad” friendship,” Norén-Nilsson said.

Abdul Rahman Yaacob added that China can use the visit by Hun Sen to signal its commitment to aid Southeast Asia states, especially in infrastructure development.

“However, given the domestic economic challenges that China is currently facing, it is debatable if all the Chinese promises will turn into reality,” he said.

Last year, due to months of Covid restrictions and a slowdown in economic activities, China’s GDP fell to 3 per cent, much lower than the 5.5 per cent official target, according to its National Bureau of Statistics.

Cambodia’s debt-trap?

Amid reports that Cambodia is likely to borrow more than US$4 billion for the high-speed railway line, observers said growing dependence on China could lead to a “debt trap” with long-term economic and geopolitical implications.

According to Cambodia’s Ministry of Economy and Finance in December, the country’s foreign debt stood at almost US$10 billion, 41 per cent of which is owed to China.

Sophal Ear, an associate Professor at Arizona State University said that figure should worry Cambodia.

Are Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka really caught in a China ‘debt trap’?

“[More than] just the level of debt: Cambodia should be concerned about becoming overly concentrated with one creditor: China,” Ear said, adding that it is “worrisome” that some infrastructure projects built by China have fallen apart.

In 2019, a building under construction in Sihanoukville by a Chinese firm collapsed killing more than 28 people.

In 2020, authorities said it would not release documents approving the work of a Chinese company building if it did not follow proper building standards as outlined in its contract.