China’s Qin Gang to discuss trade, South China Sea, Ukraine during first Indonesia visit

Qin will meet President Joko Widodo and his counterpart Retno Marsudi, chair the fourth meeting of the JCBC and visit the Asean headquarters in Jakarta
The JCBC convention will follow up on the agenda set during Widodo’s meeting with President Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali

Indonesia

Resty Woro Yuniar

Published: 8:15pm, 21 Feb 2023

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China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang is set to arrive in Indonesia for a two-day trip focused on trade and investments, although the South China Sea and Ukraine war will also feature in talks, experts said.

Qin will meet President Joko Widodo and his counterpart Retno Marsudi, chair the fourth meeting of the Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC), visit the Asean headquarters in Jakarta, and hold talks with Luhut Pandjaitan, the coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment who is also tasked with boosting Chinese investments.

The JCBC convention will follow up on the agenda set during Widodo’s meeting with President Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, where both agreed to see through cooperation programmes over the next five years, including the Bandung-Jakarta high-speed railway.

Indonesia’s Jokowi caps busy week with Xi talks, urges cooling of tensions

Analyst Shafiah Muhibat said development projects were likely to dominate the JCBC forum.

“China’s most recently concluded JCBC with Singapore in November 2022 ... showed China’s main interests in the region, which are those related to development and economy. They highlighted issues such as the Belt and Road Initiative, trade and sustainability, so I expect similar issues in the JCBC with Indonesia,” said Shafiah, deputy executive director for research at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.

In Indonesia’s last JCBC meeting with China in 2018, then-foreign minister Wang Yi said China would focus on supporting development in North Sumatra, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, and Bali, which were deemed comprehensive economic corridors. Retno at the time expressed hope that bilateral trade would be more balanced by increasing Indonesia’s palm oil exports to China, among other plans.

China is Indonesia’s largest trade partner and one of its top sources of foreign investments. In 2022, bilateral trade reached a record US$133.65 billion, while Chinese investors pumped US$5.18 billion into Indonesia last year, behind only Singapore’s US$10.54 billion. The United States was ranked sixth with US$2.12 billion.

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Former Indonesian diplomat Ple Priatna, who has been posted to cities including Beijing and Brussels, said he hoped Qin and Retno would not avoid discussing topics that have been sticking points.

“I only hope that the meeting will not only talk about economics but also sensitive, political issues such as the South China Sea issue. China’s protests against Indonesia’s [oil and natural gas drilling near Natuna Islands] were so intense that it triggered public’s emotions,” Ple said.

In 2021, China reportedly made repeated demands that Indonesia stop drilling activities at an oil rig in the waters around the Natuna Islands, which falls under Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone but China deems its territory under its so-called “nine-dash line” claim to most of the South China Sea.

What does Beijing want in Indonesia’s Natuna Islands?

China’s coastguard vessels have also been repeatedly spotted in the North Natuna Sea, where just last month its most massive coastguard ship was spotted.

At the end of the Asean foreign ministers’ meeting earlier this month, Retno said the regional bloc’s top diplomats agreed to speed up the process of the Code of Conduct meeting and conclude them “as soon as possible”.

Shafiah of CSIS said both sides were likely to discuss the South China Sea on Wednesday, as it was in the 2018 JCBC meeting, but both ministers would emphasise economy-related issues in their statements.

She added that while the last JCBC discussed the issue of Palestine, the war in Ukraine would dominate the global issues discussion between Retno and Qin on Wednesday.

“Not discussing the war in Ukraine would render the meeting as out of touch with the current geopolitical reality,” Shafiah said. “For Indonesia, the concern is on [soaring] energy and food prices.”

What exactly did Indonesia’s Jokowi achieve in Moscow and Kyiv meetings?

Ple said Retno would likely try to push her counterpart to play a role in creating peace between Russia and Ukraine. “Indonesia believes that peace negotiations [between Russia and Ukraine] must be promoted by anyone, to not let the conflict continue to erupt,” he said.

On China’s part, Qin would likely convey to Retno China’s hope that Indonesia would continue to be neutral and “not be led by the agenda pushed by the US and the West”, Ple said.