Russian ‘backlash’, energy issues holding back Japan’s Kishida from Ukraine trip: analysts

Japan concerned that Tokyo-Moscow negotiations over disputed territories could be affected, increase risk of Russia military threat, analysts note

Kishida might risk being seen as escalating conflict by showing ‘partisan support’ for Ukraine, with parliament session and security issues among concerns

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Prime Minister Fumio Kishida bows after Japan’s lower house of parliament on Tuesday approved a US$839.3 billion budget for the coming financial year. Photo: Kyodo News via AP

Published: 12:00pm, 3 Mar 2023

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appears reluctant to visit Ukraine because of concerns that doing so may jeopardise the country’s energy supplies from Russia and that it may upset people in Japan who think Tokyo should not take sides in the war, analysts have said.

Since US President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv last month, international pressure has been growing for Kishida – the last remaining G7 leader not to visit Ukraine – to do the same.

Speaking to Japanese media, deputy chief cabinet secretary Seiji Kihara said “nothing concrete has been decided”. He added that “Ukraine is rather far geographically” and it would be hard for the country’s Self-Defence Forces “to assure the prime minister’s security”.

Analyst Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi said Kishida should visit Ukraine not just to show support as current G7 chair but also due to Japan’s role in international security.

“The Kishida administration emphasises international order based on the rule of law,” said Hinata-Yamaguchi, a project assistant professor at The University of Tokyo’s Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology.

He added that Japan was likely to be concerned about a possible “backlash” from Russia, including “possible ramifications on energy”.