India courts Southeast Asia with affordable missiles amid South China Sea rows, Russia-Ukraine war
- India’s move to boost its defence sector could undermine Chinese efforts ‘to establish military superiority in the region’, analysts say
- New Delhi can capitalise on Moscow’s strained arms production amid the Ukraine war, but observers note the ‘nascent’ industry cannot replace Russia’s
BrahMos is a joint Indian-Russian venture that makes multi-platform cruise missiles which fly at supersonic speed with pinpoint accuracy and deadly power.
Yogesh Joshi, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, said there was no doubt India wanted to emerge as a major arms supplier, especially in high-end and low-cost weapons exports that could boost the country’s “nascent but promising” domestic arms industry.
“It will also create an economy of scale for domestic consumption,” Joshi said.
Last year, India’s defence ministry proposed that it would buy almost US$1 billion worth of equipment from domestic manufacturers.
Recent geopolitical events involving Russia – a major arms producer – may also affect Delhi’s regional ambitions.
“In Southeast Asia, the gap created by declining Russian arms sales will be filled by South Korea, European and US defence companies,” he said.
Russia’s share of global arms exports fell from 22 per cent in 2013-17 to 16 per cent in 2018-22, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
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But since defence ties between Moscow and Hanoi go back decades, “switching from Russian to other foreign kit could be expensive and time-consuming”, Storey said.
Akash Sahu, an analyst of Indo-Pacific geopolitics and Southeast Asian studies, said India’s increased focus on Southeast Asia, including in defence, was part of its larger “Act East” policy aimed at boosting economic and strategic relations and bolstering India’s standing as a regional power.
India’s Minister of State for Defence Ajay Bhatt said last week that the government had given approval to 45 companies and joint ventures to manufacture defence equipment in the country.
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“A robust economy and large workforce can allow India to meet the demands for [a] boost in defence production,” Sahu said.
Pankaj Jha, professor of strategic studies at O.P. Jindal Global University in India, said revenue earned from arms exports could be used to fund the research and development of new weapon systems and allow Delhi’s defence industry to finally become more self-sustaining.
India was also exploring the possibility of supplying critical weapons systems, Jha said, as well as light combat helicopters and torpedoes.
“India cannot act as an alternative to Russia, but it has developed its own acumen in terms of developing products such as radars, short-range missiles and communication equipment,” Jha said.
Daniel Markey, senior South Asia adviser at the US Institute of Peace, said India-manufactured BrahMos systems were especially attractive to Southeast Asian countries not just for their capabilities but also their “reasonable price”.
“I cannot immediately think of another major system made in India with the same appeal,” Markey said, adding that Indian officials have indicated they want to become net exporters of arms and improve the country’s ability to innovate without foreign involvement.
“But progress is slow and success will be years away, India cannot flip a switch and fill gaps left by Russia, but in theory, at least, it is well-placed to try, in part because it could hit lower cost points than US or European manufacturers,” Markey said.
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Manufacturing the latest and most advanced BrahMos cruise missile variant in India costs about US$4.85 million each, according to India’s defence ministry, while hypersonic missiles produced elsewhere cost at least three times that amount.
“Although India has been willing to continue working with Russia despite the war and sanctions, one major question will be whether Russia can continue to work with India, or if Moscow’s tightening ties with Beijing might preclude that,” Markey said.
“This is New Delhi’s nightmare, as it would leave India without access to Russian arms at the same time as China appears more threatening along the border.”
Russia continues to be India’s largest arms supplier, even though its share of Delhi’s defence imports fell from 62 per cent to 45 per cent between 2017 and 2022.