China support for Asean nuclear weapon-free zone ‘counter-intuitive’ if other states do not sign pact

With Beijing growing its nuclear arsenal, it is also unclear how it intends to abide by the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, analysts say

China’s interest in the pact shows desire to promote peace and stability in region, but could also be a ‘campaign against Aukus’

Reading Time:4 minutes

A nuclear-powered Type 094A Jin-class ballistic missile submarine of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy during a military display in the South China Sea in 2018. Photo: Reuters

Published: 9:30am, 6 Apr 2023

China’s willingness to sign a treaty making Southeast Asia a nuclear weapon-free zone would be “counter-intuitive” if other such states do not sign the agreement, analysts have said.

It was also unclear how Beijing intended to abide by the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (SEANWFZ) – also known as the Bangkok Treaty – even if it signed the protocol to the pact, as its growing arsenal showed it was merely finding ways to counter a Western-driven submarine programme, observers noted.

During a meeting last week with Kao Kim Hourn, secretary general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said Beijing was “willing to take the lead” in signing the protocol to help safeguard regional security and stability.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told Asean leaders in 2021 that Beijing was ready to sign the protocol “at the earliest possible date”, just months after the US-led Aukus alliance with Australia and Britain was unveiled.

In force since 1997, the SEANWFZ obliges the member states of Asean “not to develop, manufacture or otherwise acquire, possess or have control over nuclear weapons; station or transport nuclear weapons by any means; or test or use nuclear weapons”.

None of the five recognised nuclear-armed states – China, France, Russia, Britain and the United States – has signed the protocol, which would oblige them not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any party to the treaty and region.

Alvin Chew, senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said China’s willingness to lead the treaty signing pointed to its desire to promote peace and stability in the region.