Will new Philippine sites for US military near Taiwan affect Manila-China ties?
- New EDCA sites key to country’s defence in the ‘strategic’ Luzon Strait against possible Chinese aggression in South China Sea, analysts say
- A potential Taiwan crisis is likely to be an important factor, with concern over whether US forces will launch attacks from the new locations
The Philippine province of Cagayan on the northeastern tip of Luzon island – some 635km from the capital Manila – will soon host a massive, multimillion-dollar construction programme but its governor Manuel Mamba is not pleased.
“I personally oppose this and I disagree with it and for me, this is inimical to the interest of our province and the Cagayanons,” Mamba said on Tuesday, of the plan to allow the US military to build facilities inside the Cagayan North International Airport and Camilo Osias Naval Base in his province.
Experts warn Philippines should stay neutral in US-China rift or be ‘crushed’
During a media forum on Monday, four Chinese security experts said what was happening between mainland China and Taiwan was a “domestic” issue and separate from the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
The presence of EDCA facilities in Cagayan meant the US was likely to “use the Philippines sites to attack, to intervene [in the] Taiwan Strait crisis or attack China’s mainland or China’s warships and aircraft”, said Dr Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative in Beijing.
Other defence and security analysts disagreed.
Retired rear admiral Rommel Jude Ong told This Week in Asia on Tuesday the two new EDCA sites in Cagayan were very important to the country’s own defence.
“The navy base and airport [to be upgraded under EDCA] could support the conduct of naval and air operations in areas covering the Luzon Strait and the Benham Rise,” Ong said, referring to an extinct volcanic ridge in the Philippine Sea which in 2012 was legally recognised by the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf as part of the Philippines over which it exercises sovereign rights.
The Luzon Strait, which Ong described as a “very strategic waterway”, extends more than 320km between Luzon and Taiwan and connects the South China Sea with the Philippine Sea.
Ong said Chinese forces currently deployed warships near the strait to ward off other maritime vessels, and were likely to try to assert control over the strait in the event of conflict.
“China’s objective is to break the Philippine-US alliance,” Ong added. “They fully understand that we have a treaty with the US, and neutrality is not a logical option. At best they want a reset to the situation under the previous administration – appeasement for concessions, and acquiescence to their coercive actions in the West Philippine Sea.”
Ong said he believed China regarded the Philippine archipelago as strategically important and also coveted specific areas critical to its maritime interests, such as the western coastline of northern Luzon and Palawan, Subic Bay, and parts of Cagayan province.
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US to gain expanded access to Philippine military bases in bid to counter China
“They want the country to either support them actively or stay quiet while they pursue their maritime ambitions from the South China Sea onward to the Pacific Ocean,” Ong said. “Unfortunately, the Philippines geographically stands in the middle of that ambition. The EDCA sites per se are not that significant, it’s the idea of an independent Philippines that they are afraid of.”
Max Montero, a former Philippine navy officer, told This Week in Asia on Tuesday that the potential crisis in Taiwan was “probably one of the main reasons” for locating three EDCA facilities in the north.
“It’s not been a secret that the US and its other allies like Australia and Japan are warning of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan by as early as 2027,” said Montero, who now works as a systems consultant in Australia for a foreign military organisation.
Philippines’ U-turn towards US unlikely to be its last foreign policy twist
The EDCA upgrades to the airport and navy base in Cagayan would benefit both the Philippines and the US, facilitating movement of supplies and troops via air and sea, Montero noted. The sites were also considered “choke points” for Manila and Washington to control access by China’s ships and aircraft to the Pacific Ocean, he added.
“China sees these EDCA sites not just for pre-positioning equipment and extended visit of American forces, but as American bases that were meant … to encircle them.” Montero said.
“China has been vocal lately that American objectives have been to stop China’s rise as the dominant world power despite the US saying that it is … merely deterring China’s aggressive behaviour towards its neighbours and destabilising the status quo.
“There would have been no EDCA in the first place if China had been less aggressive,” Montero added.
Renato de Castro, an international relations professor at De La Salle University, said the increase in EDCA sites was merely “a reaction to Chinese military expansion” and harassment of Philippine ships within the country’s exclusive economic zone.
“Those EDCA sites are within Philippine territory. The decisions made were based on our Mutual Defence Treaty with the US,” he said. “China has no business telling us what to do.”
On Tuesday, former Philippine foreign secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr said on Twitter that “China has only itself to blame” for the new EDCA bases.
“The Philippine has been not just a direct party, but the aggrieved party in China-Philippine relations despite the goodwill of two [previous] Philippine administrations,” he said.
