Will Blinken’s trip yield a strategic upgrade for US ties with China-friendly Vietnam?

Blinken’s trip is part of US efforts to upgrade diplomatic relations with Vietnam, which has been hesitant to formally upgrade ties over fears of alienating Beijing
Trip by the US secretary of state could also lay the groundwork for a formal visit by President Joe Biden

Vietnam

Bac PhamandBennett Murray

Published: 7:17pm, 10 Apr 2023

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As Vietnam prepares for the arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week, analysts from both countries suspect a long-sought upgrade in security ties may finally be achieved.

Blinken is set to visit Hanoi from April 14-16 before travelling to Japan for the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting.

He will meet Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who is Vietnam’s de facto senior-most leader, said a source in the Vietnamese foreign ministry.

General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee (CPVCC) and Vietnamese President Nguyen Phu Trong. Photo: Xinhua

Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales and specialist on Vietnamese defence, said the meetings were significant as Blinken would be “laying the groundwork” for a visit by US President Joe Biden, likely in May to coincide with trips to the G7 Summit in Hiroshima and a Quad meeting in Sydney.

“The time is ripe for both countries to formally upgrade relations from a comprehensive to a strategic partnership,” he said.

Le Dang Doanh, a retired senior economic adviser to five Vietnamese prime ministers, said an upgrade in relations would be “beneficial” and help to “enhance Vietnam’s position” in the realm of global security.

He noted that a Trong visit to the US in July was in consideration. Diplomatic sources confirmed that plans were underway for the Vietnamese leader to visit Washington.

Nguyen Tien Lap, a Hanoi-based lawyer who was formally the CEO of the first international business consultancy established in Vietnam, said closer ties would help to “increase the political mutual trust” between Washington and Hanoi.

The Vietnamese side believes in essence, the relationship between Vietnam and the US is already at the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership

Le Dang Doanh, ex-economic adviser

Doanh said Hanoi had long been hesitant to formally upgrade ties over fears of alienating Beijing, which both Vietnam and the US accuse of having expansionist goals in the South China Sea.

“The Vietnamese side believes that in essence, the relationship between Vietnam and the United States is already at the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership,” he said.

Hanoi and Washington signed a comprehensive partnership in 2013 that broadly boosted cooperation and foreign aid to Vietnam. The agreement also included increased American help in the clean-up of Agent Orange, a herbicide used by US forces during the Vietnam war that is believed to have caused hundreds of thousands of birth defects over the past five decades.

A similar push to upgrading ties to a strategic partnership came during US Vice-President Kamala Harris’ trip to Hanoi in 2021, which ended with warm words from both sides but no formal commitment.

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Doanh said while Vietnam’s leadership hoped their US counterparts would understand its reluctance to openly embrace a security partnership, Washington appeared displeased with Hanoi’s hesitation.

“Vietnam has a long border with China, so Vietnam has not been ready to publicise this relationship to a strategic partner,” Doanh said. “However, this explanation of Vietnam did not satisfy the US government.”

Thayer said since that last meeting, Vietnam had stabilised its near-term relations with China and was now moving forward to set its new US policy.

“This establishes symmetry in Vietnam’s relations with both countries,” he said, adding that China would likely privately express to Vietnam its disapproval of upgraded ties while “being careful not to offend Vietnam”.

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“China … will be sanguine that Vietnam will not take sides or harm China’s interests,” he said, adding that Beijing would likely keep its public condemnations vague.

“China’s media is likely to issue a veiled warning to Vietnam not to get taken in by the United States and harm regional stability,” he said.

While any security upgrade is unlikely to be announced until Biden and Trong meet in-person, a joint statement at the conclusion of Blinken’s trip would likely shed important clues about the direction of the bilateral relationship.

The desire of both sides is to upgrade the relationship to a strategic partnership, “but when is the right time for that?” Lap asked.

“I think the US secretary of state’s visit will make it clear.”

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Closer US ties are also unlikely to raise concerns in Russia, its legacy security partner from the Cold War, Thayer said. “Russian leaders will be confident that Vietnam will retain its strategic autonomy and not take sides or undermine Russian interests.”

Doanh said Vietnam was unlikely to deviate from its official stance of neutrality in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Vietnam has been very cautious and has not taken any action against Russian interests,” he said.