Is Singapore heading to the polls this year, as ‘electoral drums start beating’?
- An election is not due until 2025, but recent speeches by PM Lee Hsien Loong and his designated successor Lawrence Wong hint at an earlier vote
- Against a backdrop of global troubles and internal issues, a decisive win in a snap vote would give Wong an ideal start as the nation’s fourth premier, observers say
Lee and Wong’s speeches during parliamentary debate on the government’s legislative agenda for the remainder of its terms focused on foreign and domestic policies respectively, but both also included political messages.
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To weather these simultaneous storms, Lee said unity among citizens was not enough – the city state’s leadership quality would also be crucial.
“Help me make this leadership succession, this leadership renewal a success for Singapore, and for you. Show your support for a government that works hard and works well for you,” Lee said.
The tandem speeches by the city state’s top two leaders largely mirrored their remarks during the PAP’s annual conference in November. Both leaders at the time stressed that in light of the troubled state of geopolitics and a looming transition of power within the city state, it was all the more important for citizens to continue to give the PAP broad support as they have done for decades.
Responding to this week’s speeches, political observer Eugene Tan said it showed that “the electoral drums have started beating”.
Lee and Wong’s latest rhetoric surrounding the need for strong leadership amid the tough external environment was “a theme the PAP will go back to for what remains of the current term of parliament and during the hustings”, said Tan, a professor at the Singapore Management University (SMU).
Hong Hai, a former PAP MP, said Prime Minister Lee’s speech illustrated the PAP view that “it is the only party with the talent and political commitment to provide strong leadership to navigate Singapore’s geopolitical course in a world fraught with conflict among the great powers”.
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The 71-year-old Lee, in power now for 19 years, has said Wong, 50, would succeed him before or after the next election.
The two leaders are expected to jointly lead the PAP campaign to win its 14th consecutive election and keep its top rival, the Workers’ Party (WP), from making further inroads after the opposition group’s strong showing in 2020’s election.
A snap vote held as early as this year – and won decisively against the backdrop of external troubles – will be in the PAP leadership’s view the ideal manner for Wong to begin his tenure as Singapore’s fourth premier, observers say.
‘No guarantee of unequivocal success’
While political analysts are certain that the PAP’s political machinery is set to enter high gear soon, they say the jury is out on whether the strategy of urging voters to seek safe haven in it amid gathering dark clouds would have the desired effect.
Inderjit Singh, a former PAP MP, said he believed any dip in vote share would be read as an indication of the public’s confidence – or lack thereof – in the party’s fourth-generation leaders, or “4G”, that Wong is part of.
Having seen a dip in its vote share in 2020’s election to 61 per cent – from a recent high of 70 per cent in 2015 – it was crucial for the PAP to now “win back lost votes”, Singh said.
SMU’s Tan said that regardless of the external climate, public expectations were for the PAP government to ensure a “soft landing” for the country. Voters may also lean towards making the political landscape more competitive to keep the administration on its toes, he said.
Lee’s latest remarks suggest an awareness that “there is no guarantee of an unequivocal electoral success” in the next election, Tan said.
He [PM Lee] is concerned that should one or more key office-holders not get elected, then the renewal process could be jeopardised
“He is concerned that should one or more key office-holders not get elected, then the renewal process could be jeopardised.”
The WP’s strengths, coupled with voters’ concerns about bread and butter issues, could dull the PAP’s call for voters to turn to the ruling party as a safe haven, observers said.
The WP, with nine MPs compared to the PAP’s 83, is a relatively smaller political force. It does not have nationwide party branches like the PAP, and its leaders have long complained that the ruling party has deeply entrenched itself in most of the country’s important organisations, from the trade union umbrella group NTUC, to the grass roots body known as the People’s Association.
It is also battling internal problems.
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A long running court case involving negligence in the handling of municipal funds has also plagued the party.
Still, WP’s Singh, a skilled orator with a booming voice, has gnawed at Wong and other 4G leaders.
Responding to Wong’s barbs at the WP earlier in the week, Singh on Friday volleyed back, suggesting the PAP leader was being unreasonable with his complaints about the WP’s lack of a serious alternative agenda as the opposition party did not have the information and resources of the state.
Wong had to appreciate “that the public expectations of the Workers’ Party in parliament and as elected MPs differ from the PAP’s expectations from the Workers Party, and rightly so”, Singh said.
Singaporeans will continue to back the opposition as they want a genuine check on the PAP, knowing that it was unrealistic for the long-dominant ruling party to serve as a watchdog of itself, he said, pointing out that “the inherent nature of power makes it unrealistic.”
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The leader-in-waiting has said the initiative is aimed at rejuvenating the social compact. Even as the exercise is under way, the current administration has been enhancing social policies with plans that include improving early childhood care and increased support for laid-off workers.
“Forward Singapore … will need to address education, housing, healthcare and work-life balance – issues that Singaporeans have made clear they care about and have been proven to have a multiplier effect for disadvantaged individuals and social mobility,” said Nydia Ngiow, managing director of the BowerGroupAsia consultancy in Singapore.
Voter sentiment on bread-and-butter issues have ultimately always determined the party’s performance in elections through its 64-year tenure in power, analysts said.
“These will be persistent themes as Singapore is a small city state with significant inequality and foreigner presence,” said political scientist Elvin Ong.
The National University of Singapore assistant professor said opposition parties will press hard on these topics given the resonance they have with most Singaporeans.
Hong, the former PAP MP who is currently an adjunct professor at the Nanyang Technological University, said “bread-and-butter issues have dominated most [Singapore] elections” and “the next one should be no exception”.
