Asean push for Myanmar peace continues as it ropes in ‘quiet’ partners China, India, Japan
- Asean countries took part in low-key dialogues that included India, China, Japan and Bangladesh as the bloc seeks to help Myanmar resolve its crisis
- Analysts say the inclusion of ‘quiet’ partners could be a welcome development but is unlikely to result in a major shift of Asean’s Myanmar approach
Sharon Seah, senior fellow and coordinator at the Asean Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Indonesia, as the bloc’s chair, was expected to brief member states on the “quiet diplomacy” activities that took place from January to April.
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“There are also expectations that an update on the two Track 1.5 meetings that were hosted by Thailand and India would be provided,” Seah said, referring to discussions hosted by Bangkok and New Delhi in March and April aimed at seeking solutions to Myanmar’s armed crisis and economic chaos.
A Track 1.5 meeting, in diplomacy circles, refers to conversations that include representatives of think tanks and academia, in addition to government officials who take part in an unofficial capacity.
“Representatives of Cambodia, Indonesia and Laos – past, present and future chairs of Asean – were present at those two meetings,” Seah said.
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Jefferson Ng, associate research fellow at the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the talks were a positive development as it was clear that Asean’s official stance of excluding the junta from meetings and its insistence on the five-point consensus “have not brought about meaningful progress”.
Ng said the dialogue in Delhi was a step forward in bringing together important diplomatic partners of the junta that shared land borders with Myanmar, such as Thailand, India and China.
“They are all keen to prevent further deterioration of the conflict in Myanmar and guard against any potential spillover effects,” Ng said. “An unstable Myanmar benefits no one.”
The peace plan, hammered out between Asean and Myanmar coup leader Min Aung Hlaing in April 2021, calls for – among other things – the immediate cessation of violence and establishment of constructive dialogue with all parties.
However, the regime’s failure in implementing the terms has drawn increasing concern in Southeast Asia.
Expectations were initially high that Indonesia, with its influence as Asean’s largest economy, could kick-start a stronger regional response, but Jakarta’s statement at the February foreign ministers’ retreat was said to have fallen short, as it contained only mild language on Myanmar and urged the junta to implement the five-point consensus.
Ng said the 10-member regional grouping needed to adjust its approach and engage with the junta. “If informal negotiations bear fruit, Asean should pivot and put together a unified regional approach with India and China to open talks with the military junta and broker a ceasefire,” he said.
The summit will be a ‘working persons’ summit’, one that lays future economic foundations, addresses livelihood preoccupations, safety and security concerns
Along the way, Asean should also persuade the military to allow the National Unity Government – a government in exile formed by elected Myanmar lawmakers and parliamentarians after the military seized power – and other ethnic organisations to come to the negotiating table to find a formula for long-term peace, Ng said.
Hanh Nguyen, a PhD scholar at Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, said the Track 1.5 dialogues would not necessarily undermine Asean’s efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis.
The success of the dialogues would depend on how the junta “perceives pressures and incentives from external actors, as well as the situation on the ground”, she said.
Hanh, also a non-resident WSD Handa fellow at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, added that the escalating situation in Myanmar was a source of worry for both India and Thailand, as instability was likely to spread to their border regions.
“Thailand and India might be a better fit for discussions with Myanmar than other Asean members since they have not been too vocal in criticising the coup and the junta’s harsh domestic oppression,” she said.
Hanh added that while Track 1.5 diplomacy did not carry the same weight as formal diplomacy, it offered a platform to hold conversations away from public view “and can be opened to other stakeholders in Myanmar”.
However, ISEAS’ Seah noted that while the peace plan was Asean’s top priority, it was not necessarily a top priority for Myanmar’s neighbouring countries. “There is a risk that the focus of these Track 1.5 meetings may be derailed by other issues that are not central to the five-point consensus,” she said.
Seah added that the collective view reached by nine Asean leaders – minus Myanmar – in November last year was unlikely to be reversed at this week’s meeting.
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In the statement, the leaders said the situation in Myanmar remained critical and fragile, and that Asean was committed to assisting Myanmar find a peaceful and durable solution.
Acknowledging the lack of progress in implementing the peace plan, the statement nevertheless made it clear that it would remain Asean’s “valid reference and should be implemented in its entirety”.
Seah said the statements coming out of the summit this week were expected to be geared towards the more practical, functional side and “not the highfalutin statements on geopolitics”. Indonesia, she noted, would be trying to impress upon Asean nationals and its own domestic constituents that the regional grouping remained relevant to their day-to-day lives.
These meant that one of the leaders’ declarations would include developing a regional electric-vehicle market, an economic priority of Indonesia, Seah noted, and another on combating cross-border human trafficking caused by technological abuse.
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It would also include an Asean payment mechanism to promote seamless, borderless payment systems to improve connectivity and ensure regional financial stability, as well as the protection of migrant workers and families.
“The summit will be a ‘working persons’ summit’, one that lays future economic foundations, addresses livelihood preoccupations, safety and security concerns,” Seah said.
