Is Thailand’s caretaker government aiming for legitimacy legacy via Myanmar talks?
- Thailand hosted an informal Asean meeting on Monday with Myanmar’s military, who took control through a 2021 coup, but several nations did not attend
- The move by Bangkok’s Prayuth-led administration may be its way of showing it has ‘continued legitimacy’ after May’s pro-democracy election result, an analyst says
Thailand said on Monday that the dialogue was necessary to protect its border with the strife-torn country. Several Asean members, including Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, did not accept invitations to the Bangkok meeting in a clear indication of their disapproval, while others sent junior officials.
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Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Sunday that the aim of the informal dialogue was to complement efforts by the 10-member Asean. Invitations were sent on Wednesday to Asean foreign ministers.
Dedi Dinarto, an Indonesia analyst at international strategic advisory firm Global Counsel, said Thailand’s caretaker government’s move was aimed at showing its “continued legitimacy” until the formation of the next administration.
The country’s National Assembly has 750 members overall, across a House of Representatives and a Senate. Five hundred are elected through a general election, while the military appoints the Senate’s 250 members.
He said the meeting with Myanmar’s junta could also be seen as a response to the position of the future prime minister on Bangkok’s relationship with Naypyidaw.
“The outgoing government strives to claim credit for its plan to initiate reconciliation in Myanmar,” the academic said, noting that discussions in Thailand had centred on “the appropriateness of the outgoing government” in hosting the meeting.
“This is against political protocol,” Pavin said, especially when a new government would soon take office.
Hunter Marston, a Southeast Asia researcher at Australian National University, said despite Thailand saying it would push for an inclusive approach within Asean, it was contributing to the regional grouping’s “fragmentation” by forcing a choice on what was a highly uncomfortable issue for most members.
“It’s actively pulling at the seams and playing a destructive role,” Marston said. “One can only hope that a new MFP government will bring about a more proactive and positive approach to Asean and the Myanmar crisis.”
In the months leading up to the Thai polls, Pita had promised to end the current approach towards Myanmar and further enshrine human rights, justice and the rule of law in Thailand’s foreign policy.
Dinarto said Thailand was increasingly concerned about the crisis in Myanmar that had resulted in a wave of its citizens fleeing to Thailand as undocumented migrants.
On Monday, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said that the nation suffers more than others because it has a “more than 3,000km shared land border as well as a maritime border. That is why the talks are necessary. It is not about taking sides”.
Thailand’s Foreign Minister Don Pramudwina told broadcaster Thai PBS that Myanmar’s crisis was sending refugees across the border, which had badly affected trade.
“Thailand is the most affected if we let this prolong,” he said, adding that other Asean countries “should be thanking us for doing something to help support their main goal”.
Analyst Dinarto noted that at the regional level, there were “no binding rules within Asean that prohibit member states from organising informal meetings among themselves or with dialogue partners”.
He added that the issue had become contentious as the Thai initiative conflicted with Asean’s official position, that Myanmar should implement the Five Point Consensus, a peace plan calling for an immediate end to violence and the holding of dialogue among all parties.
Thailand had said Monday’s meeting would be attended by Asean representatives from Brunei, Cambodia, India, Laos and Vietnam, as well as China, which is not in Asean but is the body’s largest trading partner.
Dinarto said that with the exception of Brunei, the participation of the other countries was “logical”, as these nations either shared borders with Myanmar or were part of the Indochina region.
“The worsening crisis in Myanmar would have detrimental effects on neighbouring countries,” Dinarto said, adding that the involvement of China could also serve as an opportunity for participating countries to engage in separate dialogues with Beijing, on the sidelines.
“Meaningful dialogue can take place through various levels and settings,” Dinarto said, adding that it was important to avoid solely relying on Asean as the sole channel for resolving the political crisis.
Pavin said the participating countries “embrace illiberal standpoints in their foreign policy and hence seem to be willing to support the outgoing Prayuth regime”.
“None of them is a champion of democracy,” Pavin said, noting that the outcome of the meeting was unlikely to have an effect on Asean’s position on Myanmar.
Marston said that Cambodia, which had occasionally spoken out against the junta, hoped that Asean “in turn would not criticise its own unfree and unfair elections next month”.
Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR), a network of current and former parliamentarians working to advance democracy, said in a statement on Monday that Thailand’s re-engagement of the Myanmar junta is a “betrayal” of the Myanmar people.
APHR co-chair Charles Santiago said the current Thai government was overwhelmingly defeated in the recent general election and “no longer has a mandate from the people; initiating such talks in spite of this is a slap in the face of the Thai voters”.
Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government (NUG), made up of ousted parliamentarians, also condemned the Thai initiative, saying on Saturday that “inviting the illegitimate junta to this discussion will not contribute to the resolution of Myanmar’s political crisis”, while over 340 civil groups in Myanmar released an open letter on Sunday criticising the meeting.
A Malaysian government statement on Sunday said Foreign Minister Zambry Abdul Kadir would not attend “due to prior commitments”, emphasising that the Five Point Consensus “remained Asean’s valid reference and mandate in addressing the Myanmar issue”.
Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on Friday that it would be “premature to re-engage with the junta at a summit level or even at a foreign minister level”.
Indonesia declined the invitation to the meeting, saying it was “critical that we safeguard existing momentum, while keeping in mind that Asean foreign ministers will meet and further discuss it at our meeting in Jakarta” in July.
Thailand’s Pita, leader of the Move Forward Party, is being investigated into whether he was unfit to register as a parliamentary candidate due to owning shares in a media firm, which is prohibited according to election rules.
Pita has said the shares were in his name as the administrator of his father’s will and have been transferred. He also said the company was not an active media organisation.
Additional reporting by Reuters
