In Thailand, Pita’s PM bid stumbles as progressive-conservative showdown looms

A coalition of eight parties led by the progressive Move Forward Party is ready and raring to form a new government, but lacks the votes needed for PM
Pita Limjaroenrat’s bid to become Thailand’s 30th prime minister could yet be thwarted by conservatives and an army-drafted constitution, experts say

Thailand

Aidan Jones

Published: 1:34pm, 12 Jul 2023

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Thailand enters a crucial few days that will decide if a pro-democracy coalition led by Pita Limjaroenrat can form a government, or whether diehard conservatives will defy the votes of 14 million people and block his path to the prime minister’s office.

The Thai electorate gave a withering verdict on nine years of the military-aligned government of Prayuth Chan-ocha in the May 14 elections, swinging behind the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), which now leads a coalition of eight parties as the government-in-waiting.

Prayuth, who carried out a 2014 coup as army chief and then rebranded as a civilian leader, announced his “retirement from politics” on Tuesday after a desultory poll performance that saw his United Thai Nation party win just 36 of 500 seats in the elected House of Representatives.

Thailand’s caretaker Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha arrives to cast his vote during May’s general election. The former military general, coup leader and junta chief announced on Tuesday that he was leaving politics. Photo: AP

Over his nine years in office, he repeatedly promised to step down, but instead pushed on through large protests against his government and weak economic results that saw household debt surge even as the billionaires who dominate Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy get richer.

“This could be the end of the road for Prayuth in politics,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

But in a country where coups have occurred every seven years, on average, since 1932, experts warn that it does not mean the army is heading for the exit doors of power, especially when it is tasked with protecting Thailand’s apex institution: the monarchy.

Pita’s progress towards becoming Thailand’s 30th prime minister is likely to be thwarted by a constitution specifically designed to leave the door ajar for the conservative camp in the event of its defeat at the polls, observers say.

Pita needs 376 votes to be made prime minister, but can only count on 312 of the 500 seats available in the lower house.

Those come from a coalition that includes Pheu Thai, which was Thailand’s largest pro-democracy party until MFP usurped its position with a radical agenda for structural reform of Thai power – starting with the constitution.

The remaining 64 votes must be reeled in from conservative rivals in the house or the 250-member Senate, which was appointed by Prayuth.

Senators will be able to vote against – or abstain – when Pita’s name is put forward for the premiership on Thursday.

Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn with Queen Suthida at the opening of parliament in Bangkok earlier this month. Analysts say the role of Thailand’s apex institution is the “real fault line” in the kingdom’s politics. Photo: Thai Parliament/Handout via Reuters

Several of the most outspoken senators have already said they will not back Pita over MFP’s call to reform – but not scrap – the dreaded ‘Section 112’ royal defamation law, which effectively criminalises criticism of the monarchy.

“We can now see the real fault line in politics is the role of the monarchy in Thailand’s political order,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University told Reuters.

Still, the dial may have now turned decisively towards a radical democracy party.

“In the short term, it is difficult to envision an outcome that clearly favours the pro-democracy bloc,” analyst Napon said. “[But] MFP still claims the mandate of 14 million voters, and there is no other political party in sight that could take its place in the long run.”

If Pita is not voted in as prime minister I am absolutely certain that we’re headed to a breaking point as a country

Tanawat Jokekratoke, Move Forward Party voter

The vote for prime minister can be repeated two more times until a new candidate is likely to step forward, potentially real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin from Pheu Thai.

But if Pheu Thai also fails to woo the Senate, a way back to power could open up for the royalist generals and their allies.

In a week of high political drama, Pita also faces a legal threat from the Election Commission, which said on Wednesday it would refer a complaint against him for the alleged holding of media shares to the Constitutional Court for a ruling.

The court has the power to ban Pita from politics and even jail him over the media share issue. It has a long record of removing pro-democracy politicians and dissolving their parties, including Future Forward, the predecessor party of Move Forward.

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Thai opposition party leader Pita confident he can secure enough votes to become prime minister

But any move to wipe Pita off the political map could backfire in a deeply divided country where political protests can turn violent.

“If Pita is not voted in as prime minister, I am absolutely certain that we’re headed to a breaking point as a country,” said Tanawat Jokekratoke, 53, from Nakhon Phanom, in northeastern Thailand – a lifelong Pheu Thai voter who switched to MFP at this year’s election.

“It’s about the fight between dictatorship and the people. Our mandate [as voters] should be respected.”

For his part, Pita has spent the weeks since winning the election criss-crossing the country addressing large rallies and insisting he alone has the legitimacy to govern.

In a video message directed towards the parliament ahead of the vote, he said: “It doesn’t matter if you voted for me or not, I am ready to be a prime minister for everybody.”

Exasperated Move Forward MPs say the deliberate delay between winning an election and taking power reveals all that is wrong with Thailand’s army-steered politics.

“It’s ridiculous that two months after an election we still don’t know who is going to be prime minister. That’s no good for the country, the economy or the people,” Bangkok lawmaker Taopiphop Limjittrakorn told This Week in Asia.

But no matter what happens next to Pita or the party, the movement for change has “already won”, he said. “Our party is like a seed, once they try to bury us we will grow.”