Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto sheds strongman image as he guns for top job by being ‘Jokowi’s man’
- The ex-general has worked to rebrand himself since losing twice, taking a softer tact in speeches and connecting with younger voters on social media
- Prabowo has said if elected he’d continue the policies of the Widodo, who remains popular and is widely considered the kingmaker of the 2024 polls
With recent public opinion polls pointing to Prabowo as a front runner, this might be the 71-year-old defence minister’s best chance to finally seize the top job.
But in his way stands the younger, arguably more charismatic, Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, the candidate of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), as well as Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor backed by Indonesia’s influential Islamic parties.
A survey published earlier this month by pollster Lingkaran Survei Indonesia showed Prabowo in the lead with a 34.3 per cent approval rating, gaining ground after months of consistently placing behind Ganjar, who received 32.7 per cent of the vote. Anies remained in third place with 22.1 per cent.
But how did Prabowo, after two failed presidential bids, make his way to the top of opinion polls?
Experts suggest the former military general has worked to rebrand himself, shifting away from his former strongman persona by taking a softer tact in his speeches and using an impressive social media campaign to connect with younger voters.
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“You have to admit, Prabowo’s style of communication is completely different from what it was like in the last election in 2019,” said Yoes Kenawas, a political researcher from pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia.
“He has been working to present himself as a team player as part of Jokowi’s administration,” Yoes said. “He’s portraying himself as Jokowi’s man.”
But with the vote still seven months away, Prabowo faces a long road ahead if he wants to translate his recent momentum into a win.
Stamp of approval
Widodo, himself a member of the ruling PDI-P party, had a hand in selecting Ganjar as the party’s presidential candidate. But he has not shied away from also expressing his support for Prabowo.
Back in November, Widodo even quipped that 2024 “belongs to Prabowo”.
The pair have met at least three times in the past month. “The president asked about my future plans,” Prabowo said after a meeting at the presidential palace in June.
There have also been some more indirect indications to suggest that Prabowo has Widodo’s backing.
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“Many of the volunteer groups that supported Jokowi and were pivotal in his electoral victories have already endorsed Prabowo,” said Alexander R. Arifianto, a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ Indonesia programme.
Ultimately, it was in Widodo’s best interests to make sure the next leader of Indonesia would secure his legacy, said Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political analyst with the Jakarta-based National Research and Innovation Agency.
“Jokowi wants to ensure that his successor will continue his work and policies after he retires in 2024,” Wasisto said.
Jokowi wants to ensure that his successor will continue his work and policies after he retires in 2024
Prabowo has repeatedly stated that he would carry forward Widodo’s programmes as president if he is elected in February, including continuing the construction of a new US$32 billion capital Nusantara in Borneo, and the revamping of the domestic mining industry.
As a high-ranking PDI-P member, Ganjar is very likely to also continue these programmes.
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Over the past few months, rumours have also surfaced that Megawati would have the exclusive right to pick Ganjar’s cabinet appointments, prompting concerns from non-PDI-P members of Jokowi’s coalition that they would no longer have a seat at the table.
Ganjar brushed off the rumours, but soon afterwards, leaders from coalition members Golkar and the National Mandate Party were spotted meeting with Prabowo.
“It’s going to be a challenge for Ganjar, who so far has not shown that he has an independent personality apart from being a candidate of the PDI-P and of Megawati,” Arifianto said.
“Prabowo is going to show that he is an independent persona, and that he would make a strong and decisive leader in his own right.”
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But Prabowo might go down a different path, analysts say, and choose a candidate who has strong links to an Islamic organisation like Nahdlatul Ulama to win support from its large voting bloc.
Anies, the ex-governor of Jakarta who has close ties with the conservative Muslim parties, has been trailing in the polls and Prabowo might be looking to absorb their votes and rally supporters to his side.
“The smart move would be to appeal to the Islamic constituency, and his vice-presidential pick can help him secure that,” Arifianto said.
