Turkey deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE herald new security ties amid US shift to counter China, Russia

The deals represent a rapid change in Turkey’s complex relationship with the Gulf, which is now back on a more friendly footing after years of rivalry

Doubts about continued US support have drawn Turkey and its Gulf rivals closer to address regional tensions and enhance cooperation

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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right) with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia earlier this month. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 11:00am, 25 Jul 2023Updated: 1:54pm, 25 Jul 2023

A string of deals by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has established Turkey as an important new security partner for the Gulf monarchies, at a time when the United States is undertaking a drawdown of forces in the Middle East in line with its shift in foreign policy focus towards containing China and Russia.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week made a landmark tour of the Gulf, returning to Ankara having secured US$11.5 billion in financial assistance from the UAE to help shore up Turkey’s depleted foreign exchange reserves, fast-depreciating lira currency and yawning budgetary deficit.

Erdogan also reached agreements with the UAE and Saudi Arabia to establish joint defence production programmes with Turkey, which has the second-largest military in Nato. Turkish defence manufacturer Baykar received its largest overseas orders from Saudi Arabia for the transfer of technology and joint production of its military drones.

People walk through the old city bazaar in Istanbul. Turkey secured US$11.5 billion in financial assistance from the UAE to help shore up its battered economy. Photo: EPA-EFE

The deals signed in the Gulf during Erdogan’s visit represent a rapid turnaround in relations since 2020. Turkey and the Saudi-Emirati alliance were at loggerheads throughout the 2010s because they backed opposite sides in Egypt, Libya and other regional states where civil wars were sparked by the Arab spring revolutions at the start of the decade.

“Many of the factors which led some Gulf Cooperation Council states to feel threatened by Turkey’s foreign policy have drastically changed, giving Riyadh and Abu Dhabi less reason to perceive Ankara as a dangerous actor,” said Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk consultancy.

Not all suspicions have been removed and there are potential scenarios whereby geopolitical tensions could resurface, “making it difficult to predict the directions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s rapprochements with Turkey”.

“But I believe that these Gulf states and Ankara can build lasting strategic partnerships as all the regional actors adjust to the realities of a more multipolar world and countries in the Middle East act with more agency and autonomy from Washington,” Cafiero said.