Can Japan, South Korea seal ‘historic’ security alliance at US summit amid China, North Korea threat?
- A formal security alliance between Japan and South Korea may be difficult to conclude, but a pact involving the US ‘would be much easier to achieve’, analysts say
- While Japan welcomes improved ties with South Korea, questions remain about the sustainability of agreements given previous track record
A trilateral arrangement involving the US is likely to be easier to achieve, although experts say such a pact would still face numerous obstacles, not least opposition from other regional powers that have already expressed concern about the evolution of an “Asian Nato” security grouping.
The aim is for Kishida and Yoon to agree that they need to work more closely together to improve their joint deterrent capability and commence defence coordination and cooperation.
“Basically, an agreement on security like this could be a plus for all three parties, but I fear that if they try to go for a full treaty, it will involve too much politics, too much bureaucracy, and use up too much political capital,” said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.
“But if they are just talking about greater cooperation and coordination, then that is doable and would build on what we have already seen since the Yoon administration came to power,” he told This Week in Asia.
The joint statement is also expected to announce the creation of a trilateral leader-level hotline, more frequent trilateral exercises, shared cybersecurity and missile defence efforts, sources have told the Financial Times.
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According to Hinata-Yamaguchi, Japan’s greatest concern, however, is that the next South Korean government may be far less enthusiastic about a security alliance with Japan when Yoon steps down at the end of his single term.
A left-wing administration, similar to that of Moon, is likely to be fundamentally hostile to Japan, while even a conservative successor might be unwilling to be as accommodating to Tokyo as Yoon has been.
“I don’t anticipate any dissent in Tokyo to the plan for greater cooperation with South Korea, but there will inevitably be questions over the sustainability of any agreement,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said.
Japan had been in this situation before, he pointed out, with Tokyo and Seoul signing an agreement in 2015 that “finally and irreversibly” resolved the issue of Korean “comfort women”. The Moon administration in 2019 unilaterally annulled the agreement.
“Tokyo is asking itself what is stopping a new government in Seoul just flipping any new security agreement in a couple of years’ time,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said.
Yuko Ito, a professor of international relations at Asia University in Tokyo, agrees that Japan would like to be able to sign an agreement on security cooperation with Seoul, but has reservations.
“In purely security terms, it is clear that China is becoming an increasingly large threat to stability in the region, while we cannot overlook Russia and the possibility of what is happening in Ukraine now spilling over into the Asia-Pacific,” she said.
“Part of the problem here in Japan is resistance from the conservatives in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and older people in society,” she said. These are the politicians and people who are less willing to forgive and forget the criticism of Japan that has emerged from South Korea. Many still deny that “comfort women” were forced to work in brothels for the Japanese military and insist that forced labourers were just as well compensated as Japanese workers of the time.
“It will be a highly politicised issue for Kishida, although I am sure that he is personally in favour of any measures that will increase national security,” she said.
Both Ito and Hinata-Yamaguchi agreed that bringing in the US as a third signatory to a pact would stand a far better chance of success.
“I think that would be much easier to achieve,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said, suggesting that Tokyo would be reassured that a future South Korean government would be far less likely to walk away from an agreement that also included the US.
“A lot of people see a three-way alliance as a step towards an Asian Nato, but I think there is still a long way to go and a lot of issues to overcome before we see anything like that,” he said.
“I believe the flexible partnership without obligations, such as to intervene if an ally is attacked, is a better way of working together and is similar to the way in which Japan and Australia are cooperating on security.”
