India’s BJP is ‘on the back foot’ with Manipur-Gandhi double whammy. But can Modi still claim a ‘moral victory’?

A no-confidence vote in Modi’s BJP hot on the heels of opposition leader Rahul Gandhi’s return to parliament has India’s ruling party on the defensive

There’s little chance of the vote succeeding, but anger at the deadly violence in Manipur is focusing minds ahead of next year’s general election

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Activists protesting against ethnic violence in India’s northeastern Manipur state hold placards in Mumbai last month. Photo: AP

Published: 12:00pm, 8 Aug 2023

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be left red-faced this week as he confronts an opposition-led vote of no confidence over his government’s handling of deadly ethnic violence in northeastern Manipur state.

Although the vote has little chance of toppling his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which commands a majority in parliament’s lower house, analysts say it could provide the opposition with an opportunity to claim a moral victory over a sensitive issue ahead of next year’s general elections.

Violence in the remote mountainous state, which has been raging for months, sparked nationwide protests when videos recently surfaced of two women from a minority ethnic group being paraded around naked and assaulted by an angry mob.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been criticised for not responding more strongly to the violence in Manipur state. Photo: AFP

Modi, who had not previously commented on the issue in public, condemned the women’s assault as “shameful” and promised action, but opposition parties disrupted parliament and demanded a detailed statement. As head of the government, Modi is expected to respond to the no-confidence motion.

“If he speaks now, then that becomes a moral victory,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of the book Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times. “If he [avoids] speaking up, then the opposition can say he has been completely silent on this issue.”

It could prove to be a double whammy for the BJP, after main opposition Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi was reinstated to parliament on Monday following the suspension last week by India’s Supreme Court of his two-year prison sentence for defamation.

“The BJP is on the back foot, and this can be understood from the fact that it has made a tremendous effort to revive the National Democratic Alliance,” said Mukhopadhyay, referring to a coalition of political parties that he said had virtually gone into “cold storage” since the BJP won 303 seats in the 542-seat lower house in 2019.