Myanmar crisis reflects East Timor’s ‘difficult balancing act’ in Asean accession bid: analysts
- East Timor has been a strong advocate of democracy, but has also had to moderate its views in order to gain Asean membership
- Asean members opposed to East Timor’s entry could use its strong democratic stance as justification to deny membership, one analyst notes
East Timor’s comments that it may reconsider joining Asean if efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis fail reflect the country’s “difficult balancing act” in dealing with the bloc’s norms and its readiness to join the grouping, analysts have said.
Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão said last week that East Timor, Asia’s youngest nation which adopted democracy following its independence in 2002, could not accept military junta regimes anywhere, nor could it ignore human rights violations in Myanmar.
“East Timor will not be joining Asean, if Asean cannot convince the military junta in Myanmar” to end the conflict, said Gusmão, a former independence fighter whose party won the country’s parliamentary election in May.
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Since Myanmar’s Tatmadaw, or military, cracked down on its people after staging a coup in February 2021, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has been criticised for its poor and ineffective response in holding the junta accountable.
Despite promising to hold elections this month, the military postponed the move, citing security reasons and ongoing violence in the country. It extended the state of emergency it imposed in the aftermath of the coup.
But East Timor’s President José Ramos-Horta on Monday said it was Dili’s “destiny” to be part of Asean, noting that it was “unfair” to expect Asean to fully resolve the complicated Myanmar crisis.
Muhammad Waffaa Kharisma, researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, said Gusmão’s remarks could well reflect the state of East Timor’s readiness to join Asean.
Noting that it would still take time before East Timor could be a full member of the bloc, Muhammad Waffaa said Dili’s “strongly-principled democracy, its strong voice and advocacy of democracy and human rights” were likely to be frustrated by Asean’s norms, such as the principle of non-interference.
“[The] principle is still understood so rigidly,” he said, adding that Gusmão’s comments also reflected a rising worry about whether there was room “to be a vocal democratic voice” as Dili draws closer to becoming the bloc’s 11th member state.
For over a decade, Dili has sought to join Asean, finally receiving the nod last November. The grouping had earlier been concerned whether East Timor had the capability to be a full member, given that it is still in the process of nation-building. East Timor’s gross domestic product per adult in 2021 stood at US$3,336, making it one of the poorest nations in Asia.
At the Asean Summit in May in Indonesia, the bloc finalised a roadmap outlining steps – including political, security, economic and socio-cultural areas – to allow East Timor to become a full member.
Dili would have to sign 66 key agreements, including the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement, and the Asean Comprehensive Investment Agreement, to obtain full membership.
Maria Ortuoste, a professor of political science at California State University East Bay, said East Timor had a difficult balancing act when it came to Asean membership, noting that this was not the first time Dili had expressed support for human rights and democracy in Myanmar.
Noting that Gusmão in 2004 called for the release of elected civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, Ortuoste said there was a history of Dili “moving between being pro-democracy in a way that pits it against Asean, or taking a more pragmatic approach”.
“Ramos-Horta took that latter approach,” Ortuoste said, adding that in order to gain Asean membership, Dili moderated its human rights statements such as in 2004, when Ramos-Horta expressed sympathy for the junta’s then democratic transition.
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But Dili also had to deal with domestic public opinion, Ortuoste said, such as in April when civil society asked Ramos-Horta to retract an invitation to a representative of the junta, and to invite delegates of the exiled National Unity Government (NUG), which is made up of lawmakers ousted during the coup.
The NUG representatives visited Dili in July, drawing protests from the Myanmar junta, “so it really is a difficult balance for East Timor’s foreign policy”, Ortuoste said.
Asean remains divided about its approach to Myanmar, which means some members might use this as “justification” to oppose East Timor’s full membership in the bloc, she added.
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East Timor’s entry into Asean has been viewed with concern, with some member states – including Singapore and Laos – noting its lack of development could affect regional economic integration. Singapore and other founding members of Asean had also previously said that the bloc’s expansion from five to 10 members in the late 1990s had made the grouping more unwieldy.
Vietnam joined Asean in 1995, with Laos and Myanmar following in 1997 and Cambodia in 1999.
Muhammad Waffaa said, however, that Indonesia as this year’s Asean chair was likely to point to ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict in Myanmar and re-emphasise the importance of East Timor’s eventual Asean membership.
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Mabda Haerunnisa Fajrilla Sidiq, a researcher at The Habibie Center in Jakarta, said Gusmão’s sentiments were not necessarily shared by other leaders such as Ramos-Horta.
“Those with a similar view surely do not want to jeopardise a decade of hard work to gain acceptance to become a member,” she said, adding that Asean membership had long been among East Timor’s foreign policy priorities.
While economic and geopolitical considerations were important, so was “habituating East Timor leaders to the Asean way of consensus-making”, she said.
“Compromise is at the heart of decision-making in Asean, meaning that agreements, more often than not, will be not ideal.”
