PN, coming off a campaign that cast Anwar as neglectful of the Malay-Muslim majority, made significant gains across the board: winning 146 seats, or 60 per cent of the 245 constituencies up for grabs in the six states.

“I think it is a huge blow because it shows that in the span of nine months the unity government was not able to convince voters with their governance,” said Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri, who heads the political science department at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.

“It means there is something else that is missing that Anwar and his administration need to figure out fast.”

Relief for Malaysian leader Anwar as opposition fails to alter status quo in state elections

Anwar leads an administration that styles itself as a “unity government” and includes his long-time allies from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) bloc and arch-rivals from the Malay nationalist Umno party.

However, PN chairman and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin said late on Saturday that the results were a clear signal from the people that they did not want Anwar and his rag-tag alliance to govern the country.

“Anwar Ibrahim and Zahid Hamidi must take the moral responsibility and resign from their posts,” he said, referring to Deputy Prime Minister and Umno President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, to cheers from supporters.

Parties under Anwar’s unity government were all but wiped out in the three PN-held states. That result was widely expected, reflecting the trend of the so-called green wave – the party colour of PAS – from last November’s general election that gave the opposition a formidable all-Malay minority stake in parliament.

More striking, however, was the extent at which PN managed to grow its footprint in the states of Selangor and Penang, the country’s two richest and most developed states and long seen as bastions of the more progressive politics that Anwar and his multiracial PH allies represent.

In Selangor, PN made major inroads in non-urban seats with large Malay majorities as well as in urban constituencies. In total, it won 22 out of 56 state assembly seats, a sharp improvement from just two in the last term and effectively denying Anwar’s PH a supermajority that it had enjoyed over the last 15 years.

Anwar’s bloc retained its two-thirds majority in Penang for a fourth straight term, but like in Selangor, lost large tracts of Malay support.

Voters in the three assembly constituencies in the district of Permatang Pauh, long seen by Malaysia watchers as Anwar’s home base, elected PN representatives this time round.

Wrong priorities?

For months ahead of the state polls, Anwar had gone on a breakneck tour of the country in an attempt to woo Malay voters and counter PN’s narrative of Malay neglect by his administration.

His federal government also appeared to lean further conservative, clamping down on overt displays of homosexuality and support for the LGBTQ community.

In July, the communications ministry ordered the cancellation of a three-day music festival after its opening night when the frontman of British band 1975 kissed his male bassist on stage.

On Friday, just a day before polling, the interior ministry outlawed a line of pride watches produced by Swiss watchmaker Swatch, warning that individuals can be fined and jailed for even wearing the timepieces.

Homosexuality is a crime under Malaysian law.

“It’s clear now that adopting socially conservative policies will not win them more votes. They should perhaps focus on expanding their base,” said Adib Zalkapli, a Malaysia director with political risk consultancy BowerGroupAsia.

“Now that the state elections are over, the unity government can focus on governing and the economy, improving livelihoods. Perhaps this is the better way to win more votes.”

Anwar’s supporters in Selangor, who helped spur stronger majorities in PH’s strongholds in mixed race urban constituencies in the state, echoed the view.

“It shows that PH need to just focus on their base and [centrist] voters instead of pandering to PAS voters,” said lawyer Irfan Hashim, an ethnic Malay who voted in the coalition’s bastion of Bukit Gasing.

Wither Umno?

The results of the state elections also narrowed down Anwar’s strategic options, as Umno – which was supposed to lead the unity government’s pushback against the “green wave” – won just 19 of the 108 seats that it contested.

The Malaysian nationalist party for decades enjoyed the status of being the country’s natural party of government. In 2018, however, it was unceremoniously dumped by voters amid popular anger over rising living costs and alleged rampant corruption involving its leaders, particularly the now-disgraced former prime minister Najib Razak.

“The bigger question would be Umno’s value, as the results have shown that the driver to retaining [PH’s] key states came from PH’s support base,” said Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, an associate director with government affairs consultancy Vriens & Partners.

“The state elections results are not too dissimilar from the federal election results last November. What is clear is that Umno is struggling and is relying on PH’s support base to win seats.”

Despite Umno’s failure to deliver, the expert consensus is that it will not change existing arrangements in Anwar’s administration.

Anwar in his late-night remarks following Saturday’s results offered little indication of a course correction.

“After the hard battle, perhaps the temperature can get quite hot. This is the time for all people, for all parties, to come together, maintain national harmony, and focus on improving the country and the people’s situation,” he said.